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32Reports
BSY.US logo
·软件与互联网 ·内部研究

Bentley Systems: Durable Infrastructure Compounder, Thin Margin of Safety

Bentley Systems is a specialized infrastructure-engineering software vendor whose economic engine is a recurring estate embedded in civil, utility, and owner-operator workflows, with $1.495 billion ARR, 93% recurring revenue, 99% account retention, and 109% net retention. Full-year 2025 revenue rose 11.0% to $1.502 billion and free cash flow reached $520.2 million, yet a dual-class structure leaves the Bentley Control Group with about 62.8% of voting power and the $30 price sits roughly at conservative fair value. Rating Hold: a high-quality, sticky compounder whose cash conversion the headline P/E understates, but founder control and a thin margin of safety make a fresh buy more attractive below $25.

BSY.US Bentley Systems, Incorporated #Infrastructure software#ARR#Recurring revenue#Digital twin#Moat#Valuation
Hold
ASAN.US logo
·软件与互联网 ·In-house Research

Asana: Optically Cheap, Strategically Unproven

Asana is a mid-cap, seat-based work-management SaaS now layering consumption-based AI onto a maturing land-and-expand model, with almost all of its $790.8 million FY2026 revenue still tied to the flagship platform. The 2026 story is a clean bull-bear standoff: margins inflected to a $56.7 million FY2026 non-GAAP operating profit and AI products already reached 17% of net-new ARR in Q1 FY2027, yet revenue growth has slowed to high single digits and management still flags PLG as a roughly two-point drag. Rating Watch: the stock is optically cheap at about 1.5x forward EV/revenue, but it needs firmer proof that AI can offset seat-growth maturity before the discount closes.

ASAN.US Asana, Inc. #Work Management#SaaS#AI Monetization#Net Retention#Valuation#Transition
Watch
FROG.US logo
·软件与互联网 ·In-house Research

JFrog: Software Supply Chain, Priced for Success

JFrog sells a software-supply-chain platform built around Artifactory artifact management, with cloud now 51% of revenue and security and AI-model governance layered on top. Its 2025 revenue was $531.8 million, up 24%, and Q1 2026 grew 26% with 120% net dollar retention, yet full-year 2026 guidance of $628 to $632 million implies only about 18.5% growth, and stock-based compensation of $156.7 million exceeds free cash flow, so owner earnings trail headline cash. At roughly 15.4x EV/sales versus GitLab's 4.7x, the price already embeds much future success. Rating Hold: cloud and security are real second-growth drivers, but at $78.48 the stock already prices in most of that success with no margin of safety.

FROG.US JFrog Ltd. #DevOps#Software Supply Chain#Artifactory#Cloud#Security
Hold
MNDY.US logo
·软件与互联网 ·In-house Research

monday.com: Profitable Work OS, Priced Like It's Broken

monday.com is a low-code Work OS SaaS vendor whose customers build operational workflows across project management, CRM, service, and development, now shifting from seat-led pricing toward a seats-plus-AI-credits model. The bull-bear crux is monetization durability: Q1 2026 revenue grew 24% to $351.3 million with an 89% gross margin and $102.8 million of adjusted free cash flow, yet management guides only 19% to 20% growth for 2026 and admits it still cannot model agent and token-based revenue, so the stock trades near 1.6x forward EV/revenue versus far richer peers. Rating Cautious Buy: a still-profitable, cash-rich workflow platform is being priced as if its growth engine has already broken, while record large-customer traction says otherwise.

MNDY.US monday.com Ltd. #Work OS#SaaS#Collaboration#AI Agents#Low-Code
Cautious Buy
·软件与互联网 ·In-house Research

Constellation Software: A Compounding Machine at a Full Price

Constellation Software is a decentralized capital-allocation machine that buys and indefinitely holds more than 1,100 autonomous vertical-market software businesses, compounding sticky recurring maintenance cash flow into further niche acquisitions across nine operating groups. The investment debate is now about price and continuity, not quality: Q1 2026 revenue rose 20% to US$3.181 billion with 6% organic growth and free cash flow available to shareholders of US$733 million, yet at CA$2,882.02 the stock trades near 58.7 times trailing earnings and 22.9 times that cash flow while founder Mark Leonard's 2025 departure and AI fears cloud the outlook. Rating Hold: a rare software compounding machine, but today's price still assumes enough continuity that the margin of safety is thin.

CSU.TO Constellation Software Inc. #Vertical Market Software#Capital Allocation#Serial Acquirer#Compounding#Free Cash Flow
Hold
HUBS.US logo
·软件与互联网 ·内部研究

HubSpot 深度研究

HubSpot 是面向中小企业与中端市场的一体化 CRM 平台，2025 年末付费客户 28.87 万，正从营销工具向 AI agent 与席位制 SaaS 升级。2025 年营收 31.3 亿美元、增 19%，GAAP 营业利润扭亏转正，自由现金流 5.95 亿美元；但估值仍达约 99 倍 TTM 市盈率，AI 计价重构尚未被验证。研报评级持有：基本面稳健，等回落到 135–145 美元理想买入区再进场。

HUBS.US HubSpot, Inc. #一体化 CRM#AI agent#席位制 SaaS#结果计价#自由现金流#估值重塑
持有
·软件与互联网 ·内部研究

金山办公 Kingsoft Office 深度研究

金山办公是中国办公软件龙头，WPS 个人订阅、机构授权与协作 SaaS 三块支撑收入。2025 年收入 59.29 亿元，WPS AI 月活冲到 8013 万、年付费个人用户近 4900 万，但 2026 年一季净利暴增主因投资收益、经营口径市盈率仍约 55 倍。研报评级持有：AI 进入转化层是真，但表观利润失真、估值仍贵。

688111.SHG 北京金山办公软件股份有限公司 Kingsoft Office Software, Inc. #办公软件#WPS#SaaS#AI办公#国产替代#利润失真#估值
持有
·软件与互联网 ·内部研究

达索系统（Dassault Systèmes）横纵框架深度研究

全球工业软件龙头，以 3DEXPERIENCE 平台 + CATIA/SOLIDWORKS/SIMULIA/DELMIA/Medidata 串成「虚拟孪生」组合。FY2025 营收 €62.4 亿(+4% cc)、经常性收入占软件 82%、non-IFRS 营业利润率 32%、净现金——质量极高的订阅软件特许经营权。

DSY.PA 达索系统（Dassault Systèmes SE） #工业软件#PLM#数字孪生#仿真CAE#生命科学软件#英伟达Omniverse#估值de-rate#观察
观察
TYL.US logo
·软件与互联网 ·内部研究

Tyler Technologies 深度价值投资研究

美国地方政府垂直软件龙头，做法院、公共安全、税务、ERP 与支付平台，经常性收入占比 87%、客户留存 98%、转换成本极高。生意质量过关但当前约 313 美元股价已计入高质量软件溢价，安全边际不足，给观察评级，理想买入区间 220-260 美元。

TYL.US Tyler Technologies, Inc. #Tyler#政务软件#公共部门#经常性收入#护城河#估值#价值投资
观察
PTC.US logo
·软件与互联网 ·内部研究

PTC 深度价值投资研究

工业软件厂商，卖给制造业客户的 CAD/PLM/ALM/SLM 产品数据主线工具，收入约 95% 经常性、转换成本高、现金转换强。生意质量过关但当前约 138.73 美元股价对应的保守所有者收益收益率仅约 4%，相对美债不宽裕，安全边际不足，给观察评级，理想买入区间 95-115 美元。

PTC.US PTC Inc. #PTC#工业软件#CAD/PLM#护城河#估值#价值投资
观察
·软件与互联网 ·内部研究

Gen Digital 深度价值投资研究

消费者数字安全订阅平台，Norton/Avast/LifeLock 多品牌加 MoneyLion 金融健康，轻资产强现金流，但行业无实质进入壁垒、平台方免费捆绑、负债约 82 亿美元，护城河中等偏弱。当前约 25.79 美元基于 FCF 不贵但安全边际不明显，给观察评级，理想买入区间 20-23 美元。

GEN.US Gen Digital Inc. #Gen Digital#网络安全#消费订阅#护城河#估值#价值投资
观察
WDAY.US logo
·软件与互联网 ·内部研究

Workday 长期所有者视角研究

FY2026 订阅占比 92%、订阅 backlog 281 亿美元、留存率 97%，业务质量过硬；但 SBC 处理方式直接决定真实股东收益、回购时点错位（均价 226.62 美元 vs 现价 128.14），P/FCF 看便宜、GAAP 口径不便宜，安全边际不明显。

WDAY.US Workday, Inc. #企业软件#HCM#SaaS#SBC#股权激励
观察
MSFT.US logo
·软件与互联网 ·内部研究

Microsoft 深度价值投资研究

长期平台垄断式粘性 + 持续现金创造能力 + AI 时代再投资入口；当前股价对应市值约 3.15 万亿美元、保守 Owner Earnings 倍数约 28x、严格 FCF 倍数约 43x。423.54 美元接近合理价值区间但安全边际不足，合理买入 300-360 美元（合理 390-470 折价 20-30%）。

MSFT.US Microsoft Corporation #云计算#Azure#AI#企业软件#Copilot#AI 资本开支#价值投资#自由现金流
观察
AMZN.US logo
·软件与互联网 ·内部研究

Amazon 长期所有者视角研究

顶级复合型平台（零售网络 + AWS + 广告 + 第三方卖家），2025 年收入 7169 亿美元、经营利润 800 亿美元；但 AI capex 飙到 1283 亿美元让 TTM FCF 仅 12 亿美元。当前 264.86 美元接近乐观情景上沿，安全边际不明显。合理买入 150-210 美元、舒服买点 120-155 美元。

AMZN.US Amazon.com, Inc. #电商#AWS#云计算#广告#AI 资本开支#价值投资#自由现金流
观察
PLTR.US logo
·软件与互联网 ·内部研究

Palantir 长期所有者视角研究

已从"高增长但长亏"转向"高增长 + 强现金流"：2025 收入 44.75 亿 / +56%、GAAP 归母 16.25 亿、自由现金流 21.01 亿；Q1 2026 收入 +85%、美国商业 +133%。但当前 $133.99、市值 $3,445 亿、静态 PE ~150.6x、P/FCF ~128x、SBC 调整后 P/OE ~176x。"卓越公司 + 近乎完美定价"——愿意长期拥有，不愿按今天的价格收购。DCF 三档 18-30 / 35-60 / 75-110，当前远高于乐观区间。

PLTR.US Palantir Technologies Inc. #Palantir#AIP#Foundry#Gotham#政府软件#企业 AI#数据平台#SBC
观察