纵横研报
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#SaaS

19Reports
SAP.XETRA logo
·企业软件 ·内部研究

SAP: A High-Quality Incumbent Late in Its Cloud Migration, Now Priced for Proof Rather Than Possibility

SAP is the incumbent enterprise-applications vendor migrating its captive ERP installed base from license-and-support to cloud subscriptions, where process centrality keeps converting into long-duration economics. In 2025 cloud revenue reached 21.0 billion euros and predictable revenue 86%, with total cloud backlog of 77.3 billion euros, yet FY2026 guidance for slightly decelerating current-backlog growth reset the stock more than 50% below its early-2025 peak to about 21.5x earnings. Rating Hold: the cloud transition is genuinely working and the franchise is high quality, but at today's price the market already asks for proof rather than possibility, with the ideal buy zone at 95 to 101 euros.

SAP.XETRA SAP SE #企业软件#SAP#云转型#ERP#SaaS#估值#ORCL.US#MSFT.US#CRM.US#NOW.US#WDAY.US
Hold
ASAN.US logo
·软件与互联网 ·In-house Research

Asana: Optically Cheap, Strategically Unproven

Asana is a mid-cap, seat-based work-management SaaS now layering consumption-based AI onto a maturing land-and-expand model, with almost all of its $790.8 million FY2026 revenue still tied to the flagship platform. The 2026 story is a clean bull-bear standoff: margins inflected to a $56.7 million FY2026 non-GAAP operating profit and AI products already reached 17% of net-new ARR in Q1 FY2027, yet revenue growth has slowed to high single digits and management still flags PLG as a roughly two-point drag. Rating Watch: the stock is optically cheap at about 1.5x forward EV/revenue, but it needs firmer proof that AI can offset seat-growth maturity before the discount closes.

ASAN.US Asana, Inc. #Work Management#SaaS#AI Monetization#Net Retention#Valuation#Transition
Watch
MNDY.US logo
·软件与互联网 ·In-house Research

monday.com: Profitable Work OS, Priced Like It's Broken

monday.com is a low-code Work OS SaaS vendor whose customers build operational workflows across project management, CRM, service, and development, now shifting from seat-led pricing toward a seats-plus-AI-credits model. The bull-bear crux is monetization durability: Q1 2026 revenue grew 24% to $351.3 million with an 89% gross margin and $102.8 million of adjusted free cash flow, yet management guides only 19% to 20% growth for 2026 and admits it still cannot model agent and token-based revenue, so the stock trades near 1.6x forward EV/revenue versus far richer peers. Rating Cautious Buy: a still-profitable, cash-rich workflow platform is being priced as if its growth engine has already broken, while record large-customer traction says otherwise.

MNDY.US monday.com Ltd. #Work OS#SaaS#Collaboration#AI Agents#Low-Code
Cautious Buy
OKTA.US logo
·AI 身份安全 ·In-house Research

Okta: Identity Infrastructure in Transition

Okta is the largest independent identity-security vendor, selling workforce and customer identity (SSO, MFA, governance, privileged access, and emerging AI-agent controls) as recurring subscriptions; FY2026 subscription revenue was $2.855 billion of $2.919 billion total. Growth has cooled to about 11% with FY2027 guidance of just 9–10%, but free cash flow is now substantial, with $884 million of operating cash flow in FY2026, so the real debate is whether Okta is a sturdier compounder or a maturing core squeezed by Microsoft's bundle and a still-healing trust scar. Rating Hold: a credible business at fair-to-moderate value with limited margin of safety, with a genuine moat and real cash but slower growth and bundling pressure that cap the rerating upside.

OKTA.US Okta, Inc. #Identity Security#SaaS#Auth0#Microsoft Entra#Free Cash Flow#Switching Costs
Hold
ESTC.US logo
·AI 数据基础设施 ·内部研究

Elastic：搜索底座的现金流修复与 Search AI 期权

Elastic 以订阅为主，把搜索底座卖向搜索、可观测性与安全三大场景，并向向量检索与 GenAI RAG 延伸，市值约 64 亿美元。合同（cRPO）与现金流改善已被证明，但 Search AI 的独立变现仍需更多季度验证。研报评级持有：现价 60 美元落在可接受持有区，更理想买点在 52 美元以下。

ESTC.US Elastic N.V. #Elastic#搜索#可观测性#向量检索#SaaS#Rule of 40
持有
·软件与互联网 ·内部研究

金山办公 Kingsoft Office 深度研究

金山办公是中国办公软件龙头，WPS 个人订阅、机构授权与协作 SaaS 三块支撑收入。2025 年收入 59.29 亿元，WPS AI 月活冲到 8013 万、年付费个人用户近 4900 万，但 2026 年一季净利暴增主因投资收益、经营口径市盈率仍约 55 倍。研报评级持有：AI 进入转化层是真，但表观利润失真、估值仍贵。

688111.SHG 北京金山办公软件股份有限公司 Kingsoft Office Software, Inc. #办公软件#WPS#SaaS#AI办公#国产替代#利润失真#估值
持有
GTLB.US logo
·AI 开发者工具 ·内部研究

GitLab 深度研究

GitLab 是一体化 DevSecOps 平台，把代码托管、CI/CD 与安全合规收进单一订阅。2026 财年营收 9.55 亿美元、同比增 26%，但 FY2027 指引增速骤降到 16-17%、净收入留存率从 130% 一路降到 117%，前瞻市销率约 3 倍。研报评级持有：平台逻辑成立，但席位扩张放缓与第二曲线未验证压住估值。

GTLB.US GitLab Inc. #DevOps#DevSecOps#AI编程#SaaS#净收入留存#软件估值#美股
持有
TEAM.US logo
·AI 开发者工具 ·内部研究

Atlassian 深度研究：以 Jira 为核心的协作与开发软件平台

Atlassian 是以 Jira、Confluence 为核心的协作与开发软件订阅商，FY2025 收入 52.15 亿美元，Cloud 占约三分之二。Q3 FY2026 收入同比增 32%，但约 5000 万美元是 Data Center 退场的前置确认，股权激励仍吃掉 25 个点营业利润率。研报评级持有：云与 ITSM 动能仍强，前置确认与 AI 对席位模型的考验尚未过关。

TEAM.US Atlassian Corporation #协作软件#SaaS#云迁移#ITSM#订阅模式#估值重塑
持有
SNOW.US logo
·企业软件(云数据平台·AI数据云) ·内部研究

Snowflake(SNOW.US) 横纵研报

Snowflake 是消费式定价的云数据平台龙头，正从两年的增速下滑中实现首次再加速：FY2027 Q1（截至 2026-04-30）产品收入 $13.34 亿（+34% YoY）、净收入留存率 NRR 回升至 126%、剩余履约义务 RPO $92.1 亿（+38%）。财务质地优良——调整后自由现金流 margin 25.5%、净现金 +$21.1 亿；但 GAAP 仍年亏 $13.3 亿、股权激励占营收 34%。

SNOW.US Snowflake Inc.（雪花） #云数据云#AI数据云#数据仓库#SaaS#消费式定价#再加速#Databricks竞争#高估值#观察
观察
WDAY.US logo
·软件与互联网 ·内部研究

Workday 长期所有者视角研究

FY2026 订阅占比 92%、订阅 backlog 281 亿美元、留存率 97%，业务质量过硬；但 SBC 处理方式直接决定真实股东收益、回购时点错位（均价 226.62 美元 vs 现价 128.14），P/FCF 看便宜、GAAP 口径不便宜，安全边际不明显。

WDAY.US Workday, Inc. #企业软件#HCM#SaaS#SBC#股权激励
观察
·AI 应用层 ·内部研究

AI 应用层、Copilot、Agent 与垂直 SaaS 深度研究

AI 应用层从"功能增强"走向"独立收入"。已跑通收入模型的赛道：AI 编程（GitHub Copilot/Cursor）、AI 客服（NICE/Five9/Intercom Fin）、法律税务垂直（Thomson Reuters/RELX/Wolters Kluwer）、垂直医疗与开发工具。商业模式分化：seat + usage + outcome 三层计费。优先研究 Microsoft / ServiceNow / Salesforce / Intuit / Oracle / Thomson Reuters / Wolters Kluwer / NICE / GitLab / Tempus。

SECTOR.AI AI 应用层（赛道研究） #AI 算力#Copilot#AI Agent#SaaS#AI 编程#AI 客服#垂直 AI#企业软件
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