·软件与互联网 ·In-house Research
JFrog: Software Supply Chain, Priced for Success
JFrog sells a software-supply-chain platform built around Artifactory artifact management, with cloud now 51% of revenue and security and AI-model governance layered on top. Its 2025 revenue was $531.8 million, up 24%, and Q1 2026 grew 26% with 120% net dollar retention, yet full-year 2026 guidance of $628 to $632 million implies only about 18.5% growth, and stock-based compensation of $156.7 million exceeds free cash flow, so owner earnings trail headline cash. At roughly 15.4x EV/sales versus GitLab's 4.7x, the price already embeds much future success. Rating Hold: cloud and security are real second-growth drivers, but at $78.48 the stock already prices in most of that success with no margin of safety.
Hold
