纵横研报
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03Reports
·油服与能源技术 ·内部研究

Saipem: The Offshore Repair Is Real, but the Subsea7 Merger Remains Unresolved

Saipem is an Italian offshore engineering, construction and drilling contractor whose earnings recovery is now driven mainly by its Asset Based Services offshore segment, with a pending merger with Subsea7 standing as the central event-driven value lever. 2025 revenue rose to 15.5 billion EUR and EBITDA grew 29.1% to 1.716 billion EUR while pre-IFRS 16 net cash climbed to 999 million EUR, yet reported backlog slipped from 34.1 billion EUR to 29.7 billion EUR and Australia's antitrust regulator pushed the Subsea7 deal into a Phase 2 review on 2026-07-03. Rating Hold: the offshore repair is real and the balance sheet is strong, but the current price already discounts much of that progress while merger-approval risk stays unresolved, with the ideal buy zone at 3.5 to 3.9 EUR.

SPM.MI Saipem S.p.A. #Offshore Engineering#Oilfield Services#Merger Arbitrage#Antitrust Review#Free Cash Flow#Energy Services
Hold
·软件与互联网 ·In-house Research

Constellation Software: A Compounding Machine at a Full Price

Constellation Software is a decentralized capital-allocation machine that buys and indefinitely holds more than 1,100 autonomous vertical-market software businesses, compounding sticky recurring maintenance cash flow into further niche acquisitions across nine operating groups. The investment debate is now about price and continuity, not quality: Q1 2026 revenue rose 20% to US$3.181 billion with 6% organic growth and free cash flow available to shareholders of US$733 million, yet at CA$2,882.02 the stock trades near 58.7 times trailing earnings and 22.9 times that cash flow while founder Mark Leonard's 2025 departure and AI fears cloud the outlook. Rating Hold: a rare software compounding machine, but today's price still assumes enough continuity that the margin of safety is thin.

CSU.TO Constellation Software Inc. #Vertical Market Software#Capital Allocation#Serial Acquirer#Compounding#Free Cash Flow
Hold
OKTA.US logo
·AI 身份安全 ·In-house Research

Okta: Identity Infrastructure in Transition

Okta is the largest independent identity-security vendor, selling workforce and customer identity (SSO, MFA, governance, privileged access, and emerging AI-agent controls) as recurring subscriptions; FY2026 subscription revenue was $2.855 billion of $2.919 billion total. Growth has cooled to about 11% with FY2027 guidance of just 9–10%, but free cash flow is now substantial, with $884 million of operating cash flow in FY2026, so the real debate is whether Okta is a sturdier compounder or a maturing core squeezed by Microsoft's bundle and a still-healing trust scar. Rating Hold: a credible business at fair-to-moderate value with limited margin of safety, with a genuine moat and real cash but slower growth and bundling pressure that cap the rerating upside.

OKTA.US Okta, Inc. #Identity Security#SaaS#Auth0#Microsoft Entra#Free Cash Flow#Switching Costs
Hold