AI 半导体设备

Hwatsing Technology: A Real CMP Champion, Priced as if the Platform Story Is Already Won

Hwatsing Technology (688120.SHG) is China's domestic leader in chemical-mechanical-polishing equipment, expanding from a single CMP tool into a broader semiconductor-equipment and services platform. 2025 revenue grew 36.5% to CNY 4.65 billion and net profit rose to CNY 1.08 billion, but operating cash flow fell 30.7% as inventory and receivables absorbed cash, even as the stock trades near 120.6x trailing earnings around the 99th percentile of its own valuation history. Rating Avoid: the CMP franchise and platform ambition are real, but the price already assumes a platform future the segment disclosures cannot yet prove, with the ideal buy zone at CNY 110 to 125.

ACM Research Shanghai: A Genuine Platform Story, Priced for Zero Margin of Safety

ACM Research Shanghai is the Shanghai-listed operating core of a dual-listed Chinese semiconductor wet-process equipment group, whose U.S. parent ACM Research (ACMR.US) holds a 73.6% stake but trades at a steep discount to the A-share line's implied look-through value. 2025 revenue rose 20.8% to CNY 6.79 billion and net profit rose 21.1% to CNY 1.40 billion, but operating cash flow collapsed to just CNY 239 million from CNY 1.22 billion and turned negative in the first quarter of 2026, even as the stock trades near 130 times trailing earnings and about 180% above the parent-implied look-through value. Rating Watch: the platform story is real, but the price already assumes near-flawless execution while cash conversion has weakened, with the ideal buy zone at CNY 140 to 150.

KINGSEMI: A Scarce Domestic Track Asset, Priced Well Ahead of the Evidence

KINGSEMI is a specialized Chinese semiconductor-equipment maker in front-end coat/develop tracks and single-wafer wet tools, now controlled by NAURA. 2025 revenue grew 11% to CNY 1.95 billion, but attributable profit fell 65% to CNY 71.7 million, and a one-month 79% surge lifted the market cap to CNY 88.5 billion, about 45 times sales. Rating Avoid: a genuinely scarce front-end track franchise, but at CNY 439 the price already assumes a mature cleaning-and-platform business the operating evidence does not yet support.

Beijing Jingyi: A Genuine Semiconductor Subsystem Business at an Increasingly Demanding Price

ACM Research: A Credible China Semicap Franchise, a Demanding Holdco Structure

ACM Research is a Nasdaq-listed holding company whose value is dominated by its roughly 73.6%-owned, Shanghai-listed subsidiary ACM Shanghai, built on a single-wafer wet-cleaning franchise now broadening into plating, furnace, track and PECVD. The parent trades at a steep discount to the quoted value of that stake, yet the A-share quote is already rich, four customers make up 52.2% of 2025 revenue, and first-quarter 2026 free cash flow was negative 52.1 million USD. Rating Hold: strong China semicap execution is real, but at 104.50 USD the price offers too little protection against cash-conversion, policy and holdco-structure risk.

MKS Inc.: A Hybrid Process-Control Platform Priced for a Near-Best-Case AI Cycle

MKS is a picks-and-shovels supplier of vacuum, photonics, and materials and chemistry technologies to semiconductor and advanced-packaging manufacturing, reshaped by the 2022 Atotech deal into a hybrid that is part cyclical subsystem vendor and part recurring-chemistry platform. Full-year 2025 revenue reached US$3.93 billion with semiconductor and electronics-and-packaging both growing double digits, and the February 2026 refinancing eased the post-Atotech debt strain, yet at about US$406 the stock trades near 34x trailing EBITDA and 52x non-GAAP earnings. Rating Avoid: a genuinely better business than two years ago, but the price already discounts a near-best-case AI and packaging cycle, with a margin of safety only opening below roughly US$180.

NAURA Technology Group SUN-R Investment Analysis

NAURA is China's broadest listed domestic wafer-fab equipment platform, selling into etch, deposition, cleaning and more, with 2025 process-equipment revenue of CNY 36.73 billion. Real usage clearly carries the story, with two tool families each topping CNY 10 billion in 2025, yet at roughly 48x forward earnings the stock already discounts years of near-flawless execution. Rating Watch: a genuine national champion worth owning on pullbacks into the CNY 500-580 fair-buy band, not chasing because the localization story is true.

迪思科长期企业所有者视角研究

迪思科（Disco）是日本半导体后道设备龙头，专精晶圆切割（dicing）、研磨减薄（grinding）、抛光（polishing）三大高精度刚需环节，设备＋耗材＋服务一体，深度受益 AI/HBM 与先进封装需求。FY2025 净利约 1355 亿日元、海外销售占比 87.6%，长期净现金、毛利率极高，管理层以四年 RORA 约束经营。

中微公司（688012）：国产刻蚀设备龙头，好公司贵价格

中微公司（AMEC）是中国高端半导体设备龙头，核心产品为等离子体刻蚀设备，并向薄膜沉积、MOCVD 等领域扩张，受国产替代与先进制程升级驱动。2025 年营收约 123.85 亿元、归母净利约 21.11 亿元，营收多年保持 30% 以上复合增速，但客户集中度高、研发投入约占营收 30%。

亚舍立科技 ACLS 深度价值研究

离子注入设备窄赛道好公司、护城河不宽，2025 起盈利下台阶。当前约 155.12 美元、TTM PE 41.4 倍，已为恢复与 Veeco 并购预付溢价，无安全边际；理想买入 60—90 美元。

北方华创长期价值分析

平台型半导体设备龙头，护城河真实但更像「多层中等深」叠加。评级观察——好公司、贵价格：现金流转化弱于会计利润，约 610 元/股已把乐观情景兑现进去，安全边际不足。理想买入区间 220-320 元。

泰克探针深度价值分析

探针卡龙头、技术壁垒与净现金资产负债表均扎实，但约 €22bn 市值对应 P/E 约 225x、EV/EBITDA 约 106x；保守内在价值仅 €5-€8、乐观 €18-€24，当前 €34.68 无安全边际。最大风险是 AI/HBM 高景气被市场过度外推后估值回归。

爱德万测试深度价值研究报告

半导体测试龙头，SoC tester 份额约 66%、FY2025 营业利润率 44.2%、净现金约 3198 亿日元，质地优异。但 27,660 日元对应约 50 倍 P/E、约 67 倍保守所有者收益，已高于 DCF 乐观区间上沿，安全边际不足；风险为 AI 高景气与高利润率回落叠加估值压缩。

SCREEN Holdings 深度价值投资分析

半导体清洗设备全球龙头，护城河真实、财务净现金、ROIC 优秀；但约 ¥13,100 现价已把 AI 景气与 FY2027 恢复预期计入，trailing P/E 约 27x、P/FCF 约 39.6x，安全边际不足。主要风险为半导体资本开支周期与中国敞口 42.4%。

ASM International 深度价值投资分析

荷兰先进沉积设备龙头，单片 ALD 份额 >55%，护城河深、资产负债表强且无债务；但约 €898 股价、PE 44.5x 已充分预支高增长，安全边际不足，评级观察。主要风险：估值过高、中国收入占 30%+ 叠加出口管制、客户集中。

Lasertec 深度价值投资分析

EUV 掩模检测近乎垄断、财务极佳几乎无杠杆，但当前 ¥42,900 已接近乐观情景定价，安全边际不足；合理内在价值约 ¥22,000–30,000，理想买入区间 ¥16,000–22,000。客户 Intel/TSMC/Samsung 三家占收约 79.4%，受注高同比降 61.4%。评级观察。

东京电子深度研究

高质量设备龙头、贵价格。涂胶显影近垄断、9.6 万台装机基座撑起服务现金流；但 FY2026 营业利润率回落至 25.6%、净利新高靠出售战略持股美化，现价 6.08 万日元静态 PE 近 50 倍、所有者收益率仅 1.2%-1.7%。评级持有，理想买入 4 万日元以下。

Lam Research 长期企业所有者视角研究

高壁垒、强周期的前道晶圆制造设备龙头，工艺黏性与服务化提升现金流韧性；但截至 2026-05-22 约 302 美元、56 倍 PE 已计入多年高增长，盈利收益率仅 1.5%–1.8%，安全边际不足，评级观察，合理内在价值 100–140 美元。

KLA Corporation 深度价值投资分析

好公司，坏价格。KLA 是半导体 process control 极高质量的长期复利生意，但当前约 52 倍 PE、约 60 倍 FCF 的价格透支了过多未来回报，缺乏安全边际；合理内在价值区间 $850–$1,100/股。

Applied Materials 深度价值投资研究

半导体设备龙头，产品组合最广、AGS 服务业务增强重复收入，净现金、现金流强；但当前 426.85 美元约 44 倍 PE，严重透支 AI 景气，评级观察，理想买入区 140-190 美元。

南大光电价值投资深度分析

南大光电在前驱体、电子特气、ArF 光刻胶等半导体材料有真实积累且现金流质量尚可，但约 121 倍 PE、11 倍 PB 已透支远期成长，无安全边际，评级观察。

有研新材长期企业所有者视角研究报告

有研新材是优质电子材料与低回报稀土资产混合的平台，自由现金流连年为负、约 91 倍 PE 与 6 倍 PB 已透支预期，无安全边际，评级回避。

彤程新材长期企业所有者研究

彤程新材兼具轮胎酚醛树脂现金牛与光刻胶等电子化学品成长曲线，但约 62 倍 PE、8.6 倍 PB 已预支远期成功且利润依赖联营收益，无安全边际，评级观察。

ASML Holding NV 长期企业所有者视角研究

世界级半导体光刻设备公司，EUV 近乎独占、护城河极深；但当前价约 €1,249、静态市盈率约 50 倍，已提前兑现未来十年的优秀，安全边际不足。评级：观察。