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3690.HK logo
·互联网平台 ·内部研究

Meituan: A High-Quality Franchise With Temporarily Broken Earnings

Meituan is China's largest local-services platform, monetizing food delivery, in-store and hotel services, and instant retail, with 2025 revenue of RMB364.9 billion. A subsidy war with Alibaba and JD flipped Core Local Commerce from RMB52.4 billion of 2024 operating profit into a loss and pushed the group to a RMB23.4 billion net loss in 2025, even as platform GTV and transaction volume kept growing. Rating Hold: the franchise stays high-quality and the balance sheet strong, but at HK$68.50 the shares lack a clear margin-of-safety cushion until Core Local Commerce proves post-war profitability can stick.

3690.HK Meituan #Local services#Food delivery#Instant retail#Subsidy war#Platform economics
Hold
JD.US logo
·互联网平台 ·内部研究

JD.com: A Stronger Retail Core Discounted for the Cost of Transition

JD.com is China's largest self-operated online retailer, built on a supply-chain-first model spanning first-party retail, marketplace services, logistics, health and industrial procurement. Its retail core is strengthening, with JD Retail operating margin up to 5.6% in Q1 2026 and net service revenue growing 20.6% against just 1.0% product growth, yet group profit and cash conversion are obscured by heavy food-delivery and overseas investment, while listed-subsidiary stakes worth about US$17.7 billion anchor a sum-of-the-parts case. Rating Cautious Buy: the market discounts the cost of transition more than it credits a stronger retail core, large buybacks and visible listed stakes.

JD.US JD.com, Inc. #Self-operated retail#Supply-chain logistics#Food delivery#Sum-of-the-parts#Shareholder returns#China ADR
Cautious Buy
PINS.US logo
·互联网平台 ·In-house Research

Pinterest: Strong Cash, ARPU-Mix Risk

Pinterest is a visual-discovery and shopping-intent platform that monetizes 631 million monthly active users almost entirely through advertising, sitting at the intersection of search, social, and commerce. The bull case is real cash power, with 2025 revenue of $4.22 billion, up 16%, and free cash flow of $1.25 billion on just $32.4 million of capex, leaving the stock at roughly 9 to 10x free cash flow, but monetization is dangerously concentrated: U.S. and Canada ARPU is $7.12 versus only $0.20 in the rest of the world, where most user growth now comes from. Rating Watch: stronger cash generation and AI-led monetization are genuine, but the stock still lacks a clear margin of safety against ARPU-mix, third-party-partner, and retail-ad-cycle risk.

PINS.US Pinterest, Inc. #Visual Discovery#Advertising#Social Commerce#ARPU#AI
Watch
SNAP.US logo
·互联网平台 ·In-house Research

Snap Inc.: Repaired Cash, Unproven Ad Rerating

Snap Inc. operates Snapchat, a camera-first close-friends communication network of 483 million daily active users monetized mainly through advertising, with a fast-growing Snapchat+ subscription leg and an expensive consumer-AR bet in Specs. The central tension is that Q1 2026 revenue rose 12% to about $1.53 billion while core advertising grew only 3% to roughly $1.24 billion and other revenue jumped 87% to about $285 million, even as North American daily users slipped from 94 million to 92 million and founders keep over 99% of voting power. Rating Watch: cash conversion and subscriptions are improving, but core ad growth is still too weak to justify a full rerating.

SNAP.US Snap Inc. #Social Media#Advertising#Snapchat+#Augmented Reality#ARPU
Watch
·互联网平台 ·内部研究

Reddit 深度研究

Reddit 是以 subreddit 社区为核心、广告主导并兼卖 AI 训练语料的 UGC 平台，2025 年收入 22.03 亿美元、广告占约 94%。增长强劲但隐忧并存：Q1 2026 美国 DAUq 仅增 7%，而 logged-out 流量增 26%，Google AI 摘要正侵蚀搜索分发漏斗。股价已从 270.71 美元高点回撤约四成至 162.10 美元。研报评级持有：故事够大但单点风险高，等回落到 110–130 美元理想买入区。

RDDT.US Reddit, Inc. #UGC 社区平台#效果广告#AI 语料授权#搜索分发风险#流量质量#估值重塑
持有
·互联网平台 ·内部研究

快手科技 Kuaishou 深度研究

快手是中国第二大短视频平台，靠广告、电商与直播变现，押注可灵 AI 视频作第二曲线。2025 年调整后净利 206.5 亿元、市盈率约 9.9 倍，但一季净利率从 14.0% 降到 10.0%、可灵单季收入超 6.5 亿元增逾 300%。研报评级谨慎买入：主业估值低、现金流扎实，可灵期权未被完全计价。

1024.HK 快手科技 Kuaishou Technology #短视频#可灵Kling#AI视频#广告变现#估值重塑
谨慎买入
BIDU.US logo
·互联网平台 ·内部研究

百度深度研究

百度是以搜索广告现金流为底座、向 AI 云与 Robotaxi 转型的中国互联网平台。2026Q1 AI 业务收入 136 亿元、首次占主体业务过半，AI 云基础设施同比增 79%，但在线营销同比下滑 22%，利润兑现尚待验证。研报评级观察：AI 云在加速，但广告下滑与利润兑现尚未给出足够安全边际。

BIDU.US 百度集团股份有限公司（Baidu, Inc.） #AI 云#Robotaxi#昆仑芯#搜索广告#大模型#中概股
观察
CPNG.US logo
·互联网平台 ·内部研究

Coupang(CPNG.US) 横纵研报

Coupang（酷澎）是韩国最大电商平台，纽交所上市，以 Rocket Delivery 自营物流（凌晨达/当日达、90%+ 国土覆盖）为核心护城河，Rocket WOW 付费会员超 1400 万。两大板块：Product Commerce（韩国零售+第三方市场+生鲜+广告）与 Developing Offerings（Eats 外卖/Play 流媒体/金融科技/Farfetch 奢侈品/台湾扩张）。FY2025 净收入 345 亿美元（+14%）、净利润 2.08 亿美元；2025 年遭 3400 万客户数据事件冲击致 Q4 转亏、承诺约 11.7 亿美元代金券补偿。创始人 Bom Kim 经济权益约 9%，靠 Class B（29 倍投票权）掌控约 74% 投票权。

CPNG.US Coupang, Inc. / 酷澎 #韩国电商#互联网平台#自营物流#会员电商#数据安全事件#Bom Kim
观察
SE.US logo
·互联网平台 ·内部研究

Sea Limited(SE.US) 横纵研报

Sea Limited(冬海集团)是东南亚最大互联网平台,新加坡总部、纽交所上市,三引擎并行:Shopee 电商、Monee 数字金融、Garena 游戏(Free Fire)。FY2025 收入 USD 22.9B(+36%)、GAAP 净利润 USD 1.6B(+260%),首次规模化盈利;Shopee 东南亚 GMV 份额约 53% 居六国第一,Monee 贷款余额一年增 71% 至 USD 9.9B。Q1 2026 收入再加速至 +47%,但 GAAP EPS 0.67 不及预期,股价较 52 周高 199 腰斩至 84 附近。

SE.US Sea Limited / 冬海集团 #东南亚电商#互联网平台#金融科技#游戏发行#新兴市场#Forrest Li
观察
META.US logo
·互联网平台 ·内部研究

Meta Platforms 深度价值投资研究

全球最强的注意力分发 + 效果广告 + 社交图谱复合平台，2025 年收入 2010 亿美元、经营现金流 1158 亿美元、FCF 436 亿美元；但 2026 年 capex 指引 1250-1450 亿美元。当前 611.21 美元为 Owner Earnings 约 35x，安全边际不明显。合理买入 330-450 美元。

META.US Meta Platforms, Inc. #数字广告#社交平台#AI 资本开支#Reality Labs#创始人控制#价值投资#自由现金流
观察