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油服与能源技术

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·油服与能源技术 ·内部研究

Saipem: The Offshore Repair Is Real, but the Subsea7 Merger Remains Unresolved

Saipem is an Italian offshore engineering, construction and drilling contractor whose earnings recovery is now driven mainly by its Asset Based Services offshore segment, with a pending merger with Subsea7 standing as the central event-driven value lever. 2025 revenue rose to 15.5 billion EUR and EBITDA grew 29.1% to 1.716 billion EUR while pre-IFRS 16 net cash climbed to 999 million EUR, yet reported backlog slipped from 34.1 billion EUR to 29.7 billion EUR and Australia's antitrust regulator pushed the Subsea7 deal into a Phase 2 review on 2026-07-03. Rating Hold: the offshore repair is real and the balance sheet is strong, but the current price already discounts much of that progress while merger-approval risk stays unresolved, with the ideal buy zone at 3.5 to 3.9 EUR.

SPM.MI Saipem S.p.A. #Offshore Engineering#Oilfield Services#Merger Arbitrage#Antitrust Review#Free Cash Flow#Energy Services
Hold
·油服与能源技术 ·内部研究

Aker Solutions: A Leaner Contractor Priced Without a Margin of Safety

Aker Solutions is a Norwegian offshore-energy contractor that has become measurably leaner since folding its subsea business into the OneSubsea joint venture in 2023, with earnings driven mainly by offshore oil-and-gas project execution and life-cycle services rather than renewables engineering. FY2025 revenue reached NOK 63.2bn with EBITDA excluding special items of NOK 5.284bn (8.4% margin), but management already guides 2026 revenue down to around NOK 50bn as the Norwegian offshore capex cycle rolls over from its 2025 peak, while renewables and transition work made up only 20% of FY2025 revenue and fell to just 4% of Q1 2026 order intake. Rating Hold: at NOK 44.50 the stock trades inside its acceptable-hold range against a conservative owner-earnings fair value of NOK 26-32, leaving no real margin of safety for a genuinely improved but still cyclical business.

AKSO.OL Aker Solutions ASA #Offshore Energy Services#Norwegian Oil & Gas#OneSubsea#Life Cycle Services#Energy Transition#Norwegian Continental Shelf
Hold
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·油服与能源技术 ·内部研究

TechnipFMC: A Higher-Quality Subsea Franchise Now Priced for Continued Delivery

TechnipFMC is a focused subsea production-systems and SURF contractor whose earnings are anchored by a record offshore order book. A 16.57 billion USD backlog, free cash flow that doubled to 1.45 billion USD, and a swing to net cash have re-rated it from a post-merger cleanup story into a cyclical-quality franchise. Rating Hold: a genuinely better subsea business, but at 64.44 USD the price already discounts most of the backlog and cash-conversion improvement, leaving a thin margin of safety.

FTI.US TechnipFMC plc #subsea#offshore#oilfield equipment#backlog#cash conversion#cyclical quality
Hold
·油服与能源技术 ·内部研究

Subsea 7（SUBC.OL）横纵研报

Subsea 7 是全球海底油气工程与服务的双寡头之一，给深水油气田与海上风电场设计/铺装/连接/维护"整套海下基础设施"，2025 年 7 月与 Saipem 签订五五合并协议组建 Saipem7、预计 2026 下半年完成。FY2025 营收 USD 71 亿（+4%）、净利润 USD 4.04 亿（+86%）、Adj EBITDA 利润率结构性抬升至 21%，Q1 2026 末订单积压 USD 135 亿。Siem Industries 家族财团为第一大股东。

SUBC.OL Subsea 7 S.A. #海下油气工程#油服双寡头#并购套利#Saipem合并#海上风电#巴西Petrobras
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