纵横研报
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#backlog

02Reports
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·油服与能源技术 ·内部研究

TechnipFMC: A Higher-Quality Subsea Franchise Now Priced for Continued Delivery

TechnipFMC is a focused subsea production-systems and SURF contractor whose earnings are anchored by a record offshore order book. A 16.57 billion USD backlog, free cash flow that doubled to 1.45 billion USD, and a swing to net cash have re-rated it from a post-merger cleanup story into a cyclical-quality franchise. Rating Hold: a genuinely better subsea business, but at 64.44 USD the price already discounts most of the backlog and cash-conversion improvement, leaving a thin margin of safety.

Hold
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·航天与卫星通信 ·内部研究

Rocket Lab 长期所有者视角研究

从"小火箭"演进到"发射 + 航天器 + 关键部件 + 任务解决方案"平台。2025 收入 6.02 亿、Space Systems 占 67%、Q1 2026 收入 2.00 亿 / GAAP 毛利率 38.2%、backlog 22 亿(+20%);但 2025 OCF -1.66 亿、CapEx 1.56 亿、自由现金流大幅为负。当前 $124.77、稀释口径市值 ~$780 亿,远超乐观区间,缺安全边际;Neutron 量产与单位经济性是关键变量。

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