纵横研报
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#Merger Arbitrage

02Reports
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·特种化学品 ·内部研究

Solstice Advanced Materials: A Real Standalone Business, Not Enough Margin of Safety for the Deal

Solstice Advanced Materials is a recent Honeywell spin-off whose cash engine is refrigerants and applied solutions, now also building electronics materials and uranium-conversion businesses, and its first standalone year held up better than headline GAAP profit suggested. On July 6, 2026 the company agreed to acquire Element Solutions for about $14.5 billion in cash and stock, a deal that lifts net leverage from roughly 1.5x to 3.5x and dilutes existing holders to about 56% of the combined company, sending the stock from $82.80 down to $61.30. Rating Hold: the standalone business is genuinely solid, but today's price still does not offer enough margin of safety for both execution risk and deal risk at once.

Hold
·油服与能源技术 ·内部研究

Saipem: The Offshore Repair Is Real, but the Subsea7 Merger Remains Unresolved

Saipem is an Italian offshore engineering, construction and drilling contractor whose earnings recovery is now driven mainly by its Asset Based Services offshore segment, with a pending merger with Subsea7 standing as the central event-driven value lever. 2025 revenue rose to 15.5 billion EUR and EBITDA grew 29.1% to 1.716 billion EUR while pre-IFRS 16 net cash climbed to 999 million EUR, yet reported backlog slipped from 34.1 billion EUR to 29.7 billion EUR and Australia's antitrust regulator pushed the Subsea7 deal into a Phase 2 review on 2026-07-03. Rating Hold: the offshore repair is real and the balance sheet is strong, but the current price already discounts much of that progress while merger-approval risk stays unresolved, with the ideal buy zone at 3.5 to 3.9 EUR.

Hold