纵横研报
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#并购套利

08Reports
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·计算药物发现 ·内部研究

Simulations Plus: A Credible Drug-Modeling Specialist, Now Priced as a Near-Cash Deal Stock

Simulations Plus builds scientifically trusted drug-development modeling software (GastroPlus, MonolixSuite, ADMET Predictor, DILIsym), but its revenue mix has drifted toward lower-margin services since the 2024 Pro-ficiency acquisition, which pulled FY2025 gross margin to 58% and triggered a $77.2m impairment. On 2026-06-26 the equity trades as a near-cash event security: Altaris' agreed $18.50-per-share takeout caps upside just above the $18.14 close, while a broken deal would reopen real downside. Rating Avoid: a thin-spread cash-deal security whose unresolved software-mix question still sits underneath the transaction.

Avoid
·油服与能源技术 ·内部研究

Subsea 7(SUBC.OL)横纵研报

Subsea 7 是全球海底油气工程与服务的双寡头之一,给深水油气田与海上风电场设计/铺装/连接/维护"整套海下基础设施",2025 年 7 月与 Saipem 签订五五合并协议组建 Saipem7、预计 2026 下半年完成。FY2025 营收 USD 71 亿(+4%)、净利润 USD 4.04 亿(+86%)、Adj EBITDA 利润率结构性抬升至 21%,Q1 2026 末订单积压 USD 135 亿。Siem Industries 家族财团为第一大股东。

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·货运铁路 ·内部研究

Norfolk Southern 深度价值投资分析

美国东部 Class I 铁路,2025 营收 121.8 亿、净利 28.73 亿;但已被 Union Pacific 收购(每股 1 股 UNP + 88.82 美元),投资逻辑变为事件驱动并购套利。独立 NSC 视角下 PE 24.7x / P/FCF 32.7x,理想买入 160-210 美元,当前 314.53 美元安全边际不足。

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