#贵金属

Pan American Silver: Juanicipio Upgrades the Silver Book, But $44 Already Pays for the Transition

Pan American Silver is an Americas-focused, silver-first precious-metals miner whose September 2025 MAG acquisition added a 44% stake in the high-grade Juanicipio mine, lifting 2026 guidance to 25-27 Moz silver and 700-750 koz gold on a net-cash balance sheet. The portfolio is genuinely better than the 2022 trough, but at $44.39 the stock trades near 9.2x EV/EBITDA on a 7% free-cash-flow yield, already pricing the upgrade while Escobal and Navidad stay politically frozen and 2026 cost guidance leans on $70 silver against roughly $58 spot. Rating Hold: a better silver miner with no clear margin of safety, where a buy needs either the mid-$20s or proof that normalized free cash flow holds closer to the base case than the conservative one.

Barrick Mining: A World-Class Gold-and-Copper Portfolio in Transition, Discounted for Complexity and Priced Near Fair Value

Barrick Mining is a senior gold-and-copper miner with world-class reserve depth (85Moz gold, 18Mt copper), district quality in Nevada and Pueblo Viejo, and a balance sheet strong enough to fund both record shareholder returns and future growth. Record 2025 cash flow (US$7.69 billion operating, US$3.87 billion free) proved the operating leverage, but the stock trades at a persistent discount to peers because sovereign risk in Mali, a Reko Diq budget review, a Newmont dispute over Nevada, and an unfinished North American carve-out all cloud the path from ore to shareholder value. Rating Hold: the gold cash flows and copper optionality are real, but the price already reflects strong metals and leaves only a moderate cushion against execution risk, with a defensible entry only below roughly US$26.

Royal Gold 深度研究

Royal Gold 是贵金属特许权与金属流平台，一次性投资换取矿山数十年的金属流提成，2025 年调整后 EBITDA 利润率 82%、仅 39 名员工管理 367 项权益。全年收入 10.3 亿美元、经营现金流 7.05 亿美元、净利润 4.66 亿美元，现金转化约 1.5 倍；2025 年完成 Kansanshi 金流与 Sandstorm/Horizon 并购，资产更多元但伴随增发稀释，现价 207.57 美元约 25.1 倍市盈率、1.36 倍 P/NAV。研报评级持有：商业质量高的成熟现金牛与金价杠杆，但当前是合理拥有区而非理想建仓区。

艾格尼科鹰矿(AEM) 横纵研报

艾格尼科鹰矿（Agnico Eagle，AEM，NYSE/TSX 双重上市，以美元报告）是全球第二大、质地公认最优的黄金矿企，2025 年产金约 345 万盎司、AISC 约 1,339 美元/盎司为大型资深金企最低，约 97% 产量来自加拿大/澳洲/芬兰等 A 级矿业管辖区，黄金为绝对主业（少量白银/铜/锌副产），核心矿区含加拿大 Detour Lake、Canadian Malartic、Meadowbank 及芬兰 Kittila、澳洲 Fosterville。资产负债表为净现金约 29 亿美元、总债务仅约 2 亿美元（2026-04 获 Fitch 上调至 A-），2025 年自由现金流创纪录约 44 亿美元。当前正处黄金现货于 2026-01 底创历史新高（盘中约 5,589 美元/盎司）后高位回调、AEM 股价自 2026-03-02 高点 251.57 美元回撤约 35% 的周期阶段。本报告评级观察（中性，下行风险条件于金价回落），理想买入 ≤ 135 美元；与卖方 Buy/平均目标 254 美元（约 +55%）的共识相左，但双方真正对赌的是无人能可靠预测的金价。

Franco-Nevada 横纵框架深度研究

全球黄金特许权/流式(royalty & streaming)龙头之一——不挖矿、只持有他人矿山的产量分成权，靠 >400 项特许权/金属流组合赚取约 91% 的 EBITDA 利润率、零负债、连续 19 年提升股息，是采矿业公认最好的商业模式：金价上行直接下沉为利润、却几乎不承担运营成本通胀与资本开支。