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贵金属(黄金特许权、流式)

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·贵金属(黄金特许权、流式) ·内部研究

OR Royalties: A Mid-Tier Royalty Franchise Re-Rating With Visible Growth, Priced Around Fair Value

OR Royalties is a mid-tier precious-metals royalty and streaming company anchored by a 3-5% NSR on the Tier-1 Canadian Malartic mine, with 196 interests and 23 producing assets. 2025 revenue jumped 45% to US$277.4 million on a soaring realized gold price and the company finished the year debt-free, while the 2030 outlook of 120,000-135,000 GEOs is backed by named projects rather than blue-sky exploration; yet much of the earnings step-up is gold-price torque and Canadian Malartic still dominates the story. Rating Hold: a genuinely improving franchise re-rating with visible growth, but priced around fair value, with a defensible entry only in the low-to-mid US$20s, below the conservative fair value of US$28.

Hold
·贵金属(黄金特许权、流式) ·In-house Research

Triple Flag Precious Metals: Quality Compounder, Fully Priced

Triple Flag is a gold-focused streaming and royalty financier that funds miners and collects metal for years at fixed terms, running a 242-asset book at a 93% asset margin with little operating drag. FY2025 revenue reached US$388.7 million with US$312.8 million operating cash flow, yet at US$30.05 the stock trades above its ideal-buy zone, with Northparkes alone at 26% of consensus NAV. Rating Watch: a high-quality compounder still in transition to senior scale, attractive on quality but not yet on price.

Watch
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·贵金属(黄金特许权、流式) ·内部研究

Royal Gold 深度研究

Royal Gold 是贵金属特许权与金属流平台,一次性投资换取矿山数十年的金属流提成,2025 年调整后 EBITDA 利润率 82%、仅 39 名员工管理 367 项权益。全年收入 10.3 亿美元、经营现金流 7.05 亿美元、净利润 4.66 亿美元,现金转化约 1.5 倍;2025 年完成 Kansanshi 金流与 Sandstorm/Horizon 并购,资产更多元但伴随增发稀释,现价 207.57 美元约 25.1 倍市盈率、1.36 倍 P/NAV。研报评级持有:商业质量高的成熟现金牛与金价杠杆,但当前是合理拥有区而非理想建仓区。

持有
·贵金属(黄金特许权、流式) ·内部研究

Franco-Nevada 横纵框架深度研究

全球黄金特许权/流式(royalty & streaming)龙头之一——不挖矿、只持有他人矿山的产量分成权,靠 >400 项特许权/金属流组合赚取约 91% 的 EBITDA 利润率、零负债、连续 19 年提升股息,是采矿业公认最好的商业模式:金价上行直接下沉为利润、却几乎不承担运营成本通胀与资本开支。

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