纵横研报
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#Precious Metals

03Reports
FRES.LSE logo
·白银矿业 ·内部研究

Fresnillo: A Genuine Re-Rating, But the Price Already Assumes the Hard Part Is Done

Fresnillo is the world's largest primary silver producer and one of Mexico's largest gold producers, whose 2025 results (adjusted revenue of US$4.65 billion, EBITDA of US$2.80 billion, and net cash of US$1.92 billion) were driven mainly by a favorable metals tape rather than a structural improvement, even as the company cut 2026 guidance to 42-46.5 million ounces of silver and 500-550 thousand ounces of gold after grade and mine-plan setbacks at Fresnillo, Saucito and Herradura. Rating Hold: high cash generation and scarce silver exposure are real, but at £29.22 the price already discounts favorable metals while execution risk, Mexico concentration and Peñoles' 74.99% control remain unresolved, with the ideal buy zone at £15 to £17.

FRES.LSE Fresnillo plc #Silver Mining#Precious Metals#Mexico Risk#Dividend Yield#Governance Discount#Reserve Life
Hold
HL.US logo
·白银矿业 ·内部研究

Hecla Mining: A Cleaner, Debt-Free Silver Major Still Priced Without a Margin of Safety

Hecla Mining is North America's largest silver producer, now a debt-free, three-mine platform (Greens Creek, Lucky Friday, Keno Hill) that turned the 2025 cyclical upswing into 1.423 billion USD of sales and 310.2 million USD of free cash flow. Asset quality and the balance sheet have genuinely improved, but at 15.54 USD the stock already discounts most of that, and the upside is driven by silver-price beta rather than durable compounding. Rating Hold: a cleaner, better-run silver major worth holding, with no margin of safety for new money until it falls toward the 10-11 USD ideal-buy zone.

HL.US Hecla Mining Company #silver mining#precious metals#Greens Creek#Keno Hill#margin of safety#debt-free#cyclical
Hold
·贵金属(黄金特许权、流式) ·In-house Research

Triple Flag Precious Metals: Quality Compounder, Fully Priced

Triple Flag is a gold-focused streaming and royalty financier that funds miners and collects metal for years at fixed terms, running a 242-asset book at a 93% asset margin with little operating drag. FY2025 revenue reached US$388.7 million with US$312.8 million operating cash flow, yet at US$30.05 the stock trades above its ideal-buy zone, with Northparkes alone at 26% of consensus NAV. Rating Watch: a high-quality compounder still in transition to senior scale, attractive on quality but not yet on price.

TFPM.US Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. #Gold#Royalty#Streaming#Precious Metals#Compounder#Valuation
Watch