#天然气

Energy Transfer LP: A Discounted Midstream Cash Cow Turning Its Asset Empire Into Disciplined Gas-Led Growth

Energy Transfer is a roughly $66bn K-1 master limited partnership that owns about 140,000 miles of integrated U.S. gas, NGL, crude and export infrastructure across 44 states, throwing off $8.20bn of distributable cash flow to partners against a $4.56bn payout, or about 1.8x coverage. Its 2026 EBITDA guidance has been raised twice to $18.2bn-$18.6bn as a gas-and-NGL project backlog converts to cash, yet a 2020 distribution cut, MLP governance frictions and heavy reinvestment keep the units on a roughly 7.1% yield and a persistent structure discount. Rating Hold: integrated bottlenecks support a safe payout and organic reacceleration, but the discount closes only partly until disciplined execution is proven through repetition rather than another deal.

Expand Energy Corporation 深度价值投资研究

美国最大天然气上游E&P龙头，资产质量与资产负债表改善，但仍是无宽护城河的价格接受者；现价约92.5美元安全边际不足，给观察，理想买入55–70美元。

NiSource 价值投资深度研究

六州受监管气电公用事业，护城河强但资本开支吞噬现金、靠增发举债前行，46.77 美元已计入数据中心乐观预期，安全边际不足，评级观察。

ONEOK 深度价值投资分析

北美中游能源平台，6 万英里管道+90% fee-based 收入；当前 90 美元股息率 4.7%，理想买入 75-85 美元、可接受持有 85-95 美元。

EQT Corporation 长期价值投资深度研究

EQT 是阿巴拉契亚盆地核心、上游+集输+输送一体化的天然气公司，28.0 Tcfe 储量、2,945 英里管道；2025 年经营现金流 51.26 亿美元、净杠杆降至约 1.3x；但本质是天然气价格接受者、并购致股本三年扩张约 65%，当前 59.77 美元安全边际不足，评级观察，理想买入 35—42 美元。

Solaris Energy Infrastructure 深度研究报告

从油服物流转向面向数据中心的分布式天然气发电租赁平台，长期租赁应收款达 35 亿美元，但 2026 年剩余 capex 约 12.6 亿美元、单客户占收入 47%，当前股价已计入乐观部署预期。评级：观察。