纵横研报
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#人形机器人

06Reports
·汽车零部件 ·内部研究

Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline: A Precision-Gear Cash Engine Carrying a Still-Optional Robot-Reducer Bet

Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline is a precision-gear specialist whose profit still comes from automotive transmission and e-drive gears, with robot RV reducers (housed in 61.29%-owned Huandong, now seeking a STAR Market listing) as a still-speculative second engine. Four straight years of rising revenue (CNY 9.11bn in 2025) and attributable profit (CNY 1.262bn), with operating cash flow above net income every year, make the transition credible, yet Q1 2026 recurring profit fell 4.04% and the loudest humanoid-customer claims stay unverified in primary filings. Rating Hold: the auto-gear cash engine is real and the reducer option is credible, but at CNY 39.42 the price already capitalizes much of that optionality, leaving no obvious margin of safety.

002472.SHE Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co., Ltd. #精密齿轮#机器人减速器#新能源车#人形机器人#估值
Hold
·多元化工业 ·内部研究

Nabtesco: A Scarce Robot-Reducer Franchise Carrying a Growth Premium on a Still-Cyclical Base

Nabtesco is a diversified Japanese precision-machinery group whose profit engine is industrial-robot RV reducers, where it holds about 60% of the global market for medium- to large-joint reducers, backed by transport, aircraft, marine, and door-system businesses. FY2025 continuing-operations sales rose 9.8% and operating income 60.3%, yet at JPY 5,707 the stock trades near record highs at roughly 36x FY2026 EPS and 43x FY2025 EPS, pricing in both the cyclical recovery and a large slice of still-unproven humanoid optionality. Rating Watch: a genuine franchise on a capital-heavy cyclical base, with no margin of safety until the mid-3,000s.

6268.TSE Nabtesco Corporation #精密减速器#RV减速器#工业机器人#人形机器人#多元化工业#周期股#估值
Watch
·精密减速器(谐波减速器·机器人零部件) ·内部研究

Shenzhen Zhaowei: A Real Precision Micro-Drive Business Undergoing a Thematic Robot Re-Rating

Zhaowei is a 25-year-old precision micro-drive systems supplier whose 2025 revenue was RMB1.72 billion, with automotive the real engine at 64.5% of sales while the headline-grabbing embodied-robotics line was just 1.39%. The A-share trades at about 91.5x trailing earnings and the H-share implies a roughly 46.6% discount, so the market is pre-paying for a humanoid-supply-chain future that the filings have not yet delivered. Rating Hold: a credible micro-drive platform with real robot optionality, but the A-share still prices too much of that optionality in advance; the ideal buy zone is CN¥44-61.

003021.SHE Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery & Electronics Co., Ltd. #精密传动#微型驱动#灵巧手#人形机器人#机器人执行器#汽车零部件#A+H股#估值
Hold
·AI 工业与机器人 ·内部研究

优必选 UBTech 深度研究

优必选是中国「人形机器人第一股」，主营从教育服务机器人转向工业人形机器人本体。2025 年人形机器人收入 8.21 亿元、占比 41.1%、销量 1079 台暴增 2203.7%，首次成第一大收入来源，但全年净亏 7.90 亿元、23.4 倍市销率。研报评级持有：商业化已过零到一，但价格透支较多 2027 年扩张预期。

9880.HK 深圳市优必选科技股份有限公司 UBTech Robotics #人形机器人#WalkerS#工业机器人#商业化#估值
持有
·精密减速器(谐波减速器·机器人零部件) ·内部研究

哈默纳科（Harmonic Drive Systems）横纵框架深度研究

哈默纳科（Harmonic Drive Systems，6324.TSE）是全球谐波减速器（应变波齿轮 strain wave gearing）的绝对龙头——按销售额价值口径约占全球 58%、高端市场超 70%，是工业机器人手腕/小臂关节、半导体设备、航天精密轴的「事实标准件」，也是人形机器人旋转关节最纯粹的「卖铲人」。

6324.TSE 哈默纳科（Harmonic Drive Systems） #哈默纳科#Harmonic Drive#6324#谐波减速器#人形机器人#机器人减速器#精密减速器#国产替代#周期股#估值透支#横纵分析
观察
·稀土永磁 ·内部研究

金力永磁（300748）横纵框架深度研究：全球稀土永磁龙头，业绩 V 反转撞上贵估值与机器人故事

A股稀土永磁绝对龙头，做高性能钕铁硼磁材，下游新能源车（约56%）/变频空调/风电/机器人。业绩 V 型反转（2024 归母 2.9 亿→2025 7.06 亿、+142%）主要靠镨钕涨价（氧化镨钕 2024 低谷 36 万→2026 春季高点约 76 万、基准日约 70 万元/吨）+EV 放量。

300748.SHE 金力永磁科技股份有限公司 #稀土永磁#钕铁硼#新能源汽车#人形机器人#稀土价格周期#晶界渗透#估值
观察