·多元化工业 ·内部研究
Nabtesco: A Scarce Robot-Reducer Franchise Carrying a Growth Premium on a Still-Cyclical Base
Nabtesco is a diversified Japanese precision-machinery group whose profit engine is industrial-robot RV reducers, where it holds about 60% of the global market for medium- to large-joint reducers, backed by transport, aircraft, marine, and door-system businesses. FY2025 continuing-operations sales rose 9.8% and operating income 60.3%, yet at JPY 5,707 the stock trades near record highs at roughly 36x FY2026 EPS and 43x FY2025 EPS, pricing in both the cyclical recovery and a large slice of still-unproven humanoid optionality. Rating Watch: a genuine franchise on a capital-heavy cyclical base, with no margin of safety until the mid-3,000s.
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