纵横研报
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688331.SHG

¥142+5.03% RemeGen Co., Ltd. 制药
01Reports China 医疗健康
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RemeGen Co. Ltd. A
医疗健康 · 生物科技

RemeGen Co., Ltd., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, produces, and commercializes biological drugs for the treatment of autoimmune, oncology, and ophthalmic diseases in Mainland China and the United States. The company offers Telitacicept (RC18) for the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) autoimmune disease, rheumatoid arthritis, and myasthenia gravis; and Disitamab Vedotin (RC48), an antibody drug conjugate for the treatment of gastric cancer, urothelial carcinoma, breast cancer, and other tumors. It also develops products in various stages, including RC-28E, a fusion protein that targets vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and fibroblast growth factor (FGF); RC88, an antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) that targets mesothelin; and RC148, a bispecific antibody ADC drug that in Phase1/2 clinical studies targeting program cell death protein 1 (PD-1) and VEGF; RC278, an ADC drug for the treatment of multiple solid tumors; and RC288, a dual-antibody ADC drug for the treatment of various tumors. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Yantai, the People's Republic of China.

MARKET 市值 74.08B CNY PE 101.9x 52W ¥60 – ¥157.8 EODHD · Q 2025-12-31 · 同步 2026-07-14
QUALITY PEG 营收 YoY 24.8% ROE 45.3% 营业利润率 -3.4% 净利润率 38.2%
·制药 ·内部研究

RemeGen: Two Self-Developed Drug Franchises and an Export Licensing Engine, With the A-Share Already Pricing a Cleaner Future Than the Filings Justify

RemeGen is a commercializing China innovative-biopharma with two self-developed franchises — telitacicept in autoimmune disease and disitamab vedotin in ADC oncology — plus an ex-China licensing engine (Vor Bio, Santen, AbbVie) that has become part of the business model. 2025 product sales reached CNY 2.31bn (up 35.8%) and reported profit turned positive at CNY 709.7m, but operating cash flow was only CNY 52.3m (about 0.07x conversion), Q1 2026 profit after non-recurring items stayed negative, and the A-share trades at roughly a 96.5% premium to the H-share — above even the optimistic per-share value. Rating Avoid: a good company at the wrong price on the Shanghai line, where an entry needs both a lower A-share price (CNY 36-40) and proof that recurring earnings quality has caught up to the approvals.

Avoid
INVESTOR Q&A · 本研报投资者问答

关于本篇研报,投资者提出并已获回答的问题,按投资框架分组。

柏基框架 · 成长投资十问

寻找十年五倍的伟大成长股——用上行视角逼问「它能变得大得多吗?」

成长性总分45/ 100峰值 · 长板57偏弱成长叙事有明显短板,多项维度不符柏基范式

逐项 0–10 分按标的在该维度的强弱评定,汇总为依据「柏基框架 · 成长投资十问」的定性成长性评分,仅供研究参考,非投资建议。

  • 它的市场天花板有多高?是在做大一块既有蛋糕,还是在创造一个全新的市场?

    6/10

    The ceiling is genuinely large, and RemeGen is mostly growing an existing pie rather than inventing a new market — but the pie spans two big, separately-clocked arenas (autoimmune biologics + ADC oncology), and the company is a regional share-taker in each, not the market-maker. The report frames RemeGen as having "one foot in each arena," which it calls a strategic advantage that also "forces investors to track two different competitive clocks."

    On the autoimmune side, telitacicept went from one China label (SLE) to five by June 2026 — adding rheumatoid arthritis, generalized myasthenia gravis, and on 2026-06-08 Sjögren's disease plus conditional approval for IgA nephropathy. Each label "increases commercial density" on a brand RemeGen already sells. These are large, chronic, under-penetrated B-cell-driven diseases: China autoimmune biologic penetration is still low, and the global precedent is sizable — IgA nephropathy alone affects roughly 2.5 million people worldwide and is a leading cause of kidney failure in young adults, while myasthenia gravis is a comparatively rarer market argenx has nonetheless scaled VYVGART into a multi-billion-dollar franchise. So the addressable ceiling for telitacicept is "do an existing therapy category better and earlier," not create a new disease.

    On the ADC side, disitamab vedotin is taking share from "less precise chemotherapy regimens" in HER2-expressing tumors — gastric (2021), urothelial, breast with liver metastasis (March 2026), and a first-line urothelial filing already accepted. The report's first-line urothelial data (ORR 76.1%, median PFS 13.1 vs 6.5 months for chemotherapy) describe a product trying to redraw the standard of care within an existing tumor pool, again share-shift not pie-creation. China's oncology drug market is one of the largest and fastest-growing in the world, so the runway is real.

    The honest qualifier is that RemeGen "becomes stronger if policy continues to reward innovative-drug reimbursement" and Chinese physicians keep adopting locally developed biologics — it is a challenger with two profit pools under construction, not the category owner. The report is explicit that the moat is "strongest at the company level" and "weaker at the individual-indication level, where competition remains intense" against belimumab, FcRn agents, Daiichi Sankyo's HER2 franchise, and Padcev-plus-pembrolizumab. So the ceiling is high in absolute terms, but RemeGen's slice of it is contested rather than owned.

    This is a summary of the report's views and external context; it does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk; invest with caution.

    评分依据The ceiling is genuinely high because RemeGen plays in two large, growing arenas at once: autoimmune biologics (telitacicept now across SLE, RA, gMG, Sjogren's and IgA nephropathy) and ADC oncology (disitamab vedotin across gastric, urothelial and breast cancer); but it is mostly taking share in established disease markets rather than creating a new category, so the runway is broad without being a brand-new market.

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  • 未来五年它的收入能否至少翻倍?增长主要由量、价还是新业务驱动?

    6/10

    Yes — a five-year doubling of revenue is the easy part of this story, and likely more than achievable, but it is the wrong question for this stock: the constraint is earnings quality, not top-line growth. RemeGen has already shown the cadence. Total revenue went from RMB1.08 billion (2023) to RMB1.71 billion (2024) to RMB3.24 billion (2025), and product-sales revenue alone reached RMB2.307 billion in 2025, up 35.8% year on year. Q1 2026 revenue rose another 24.8% to RMB656.2 million. A base that nearly doubled in a single year does not need heroics to double again over five.

    The drivers are mostly volume and new indications, not price. The report ties future operating leverage explicitly to label expansion: "This label expansion is where the operating leverage comes from, not side decoration," because RemeGen "does not need to build a new commercial organization from scratch for every adjacent indication." Telitacicept added Sjögren's disease and IgA nephropathy (conditional) on 2026-06-08 on top of SLE/RA/gMG; disitamab vedotin added HER2-positive breast cancer with liver metastasis in March 2026 and has a first-line urothelial filing accepted. Hospital footprint is the volume engine: telitacicept was in >1,200 hospitals and disitamab vedotin in >1,050 by 2025 year-end, with room to deepen department coverage and reimbursement utilization. In China, pricing typically falls through NRDL negotiation in exchange for volume, so growth must come from units and new labels, not list-price gains.

    The report's own scenario table puts combined peak China sales for the two franchises at roughly RMB5.5 billion (conservative) / RMB8.0 billion (base) / RMB11.0 billion (optimistic) — every case is a large multiple of the 2025 RMB2.31 billion product-sales base, so a revenue double is comfortably inside even the skeptical path. There is also a third, lumpier leg: ex-China licensing (Vor Bio, Santen, AbbVie), with potential milestones individually in the billions of dollars, which can spike total revenue in any given year but the report deliberately risk-discounts because "milestone timing is uncertain."

    So the doubling test is met with margin. The caution the report insists on: revenue growth has "not yet" converted into clean cash earnings — 2025 operating cash flow was only RMB52.3 million against RMB709.7 million of attributable profit (≈0.07x), and Q1 2026 profit after non-recurring items was still a RMB35.0 million loss. Revenue can double; whether owner-earnings double with it is the open question this report keeps flagging.

    This is a summary of the report's views and figures; it does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk; invest with caution.

    评分依据Doubling revenue within five years is comfortably achievable, with product sales up 35.8% to RMB2.307bn in 2025 and a stack of new indications (Sjogren's, IgA nephropathy, first-line urothelial) plus licensing inflows driving growth; the binding constraint is earnings quality rather than top line, since the doubling is volume-and-label-led with licensing adding lumpy upside.

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  • 五年之后,什么会接棒成为下一个增长引擎?这条「第二曲线」今天存在吗?

    5/10

    The "second curve" already exists today and is unusually concrete for a company this size: it is the ex-China licensing/royalty engine plus the deeper indications of the two existing drugs — but it is an optionality layer, not yet a cash-generating franchise. Five years out, what carries growth after the first wave of China approvals matures is (1) telitacicept overtaking disitamab vedotin as the more durable franchise as kidney and Sjögren's uptake builds, (2) first-line and broader-line ADC use for disitamab vedotin, and (3) recurring royalty economics from global partners. The report states the base case explicitly: "telitacicept likely overtaking RC48 as the more durable franchise if kidney and Sjögren's uptake is real."

    The licensing engine is the most distinctive part of the second curve and it is real, signed cash today, not a pipeline hope. Three deals are already in hand: Vor Bio took ex-Greater China telitacicept rights in June 2025 for US$125 million upfront (US$45 million cash + US$80 million warrants) plus more than US$4 billion of potential milestones and tiered royalties; Santen took China ophthalmology rights to RC28-E (RMB250 million upfront, development milestones up to RMB520 million, sales milestones up to RMB525 million); and AbbVie licensed RC148, a PD-1/VEGF bispecific, for global rights outside Greater China in January 2026 — US$650 million upfront, up to US$4.95 billion in milestones, plus tiered double-digit royalties. The report's read: "Capital markets do not pay those sums to a company they think is stranded inside China. They pay them to a company whose platform has become exportable." This is why the report describes licensing as "part of the business model rather than a minor tactic."

    The honest limitation is that this second curve is option value, not yet realized recurring value. The royalties only matter if partners actually advance and commercialize the programs — the report's tracking dashboard literally lists "Partner progress: Vor, Santen, AbbVie continue development steps" against an alert threshold of "silence, slow enrollment, or deal de-emphasis." And the upfront/milestone cash is exactly what flattered 2025 earnings (the US$80 million Vor warrants drove RMB640.7 million of fair-value gains), which makes this leg both the second curve and the source of the earnings-quality problem.

    There is also a genuine platform second curve: the integrated discovery-to-manufacturing capability, credited largely to inventor Dr. Fang Jianmin, that produced two modalities and can generate adjacent assets (RC28-E, RC148) to license. That is harder to copy than a single readout. Bottom line: the second curve is present and credible as scientific optionality; its conversion into durable, repeatable earnings is precisely what the next five years must prove.

    This is a summary of the report's views and figures; it does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk; invest with caution.

    评分依据A genuine, diversified second curve already exists: telitacicept's move into nephrology and Sjogren's, RC48's first-line urothelial push, and an ex-China licensing engine (Vor Bio, Santen, AbbVie) that has already brought in cash including AbbVie's US$650m upfront for RC148; the caveat is that much of it is still optionality and lumpy milestone economics rather than proven recurring cash.

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  • 它的核心竞争优势是什么?这条护城河未来三到五年会变宽还是变窄?

    5/10

    RemeGen's moat is real but moderate — it is strongest at the company level (owning two self-developed biologic franchises plus integrated discovery-to-manufacturing capability) and weakest at the individual-disease level, where competition is intense; over three-to-five years the moat probably widens modestly at the franchise level while staying narrow per indication. The report grades it a "medium" moat in its company-profile scores, and the structure of that grade is the key insight.

    The durable part is molecule ownership. Telitacicept and disitamab vedotin "are not in-licensed follow-ons with thin economic rights. They are internally developed assets," both credited to inventor Dr. Fang Jianmin. The report notes "the best economics in biotech sit with originators that can choose whether to self-commercialize, out-license, or combine the two. RemeGen still controls those choices." That ownership is what lets it both sell domestically and collect upfronts/royalties abroad (Vor Bio, Santen, AbbVie) from "a position of ownership rather than scientific dependence."

    The second durable layer is integrated capability — end-to-end development, manufacturing, and commercialization built in Yantai since inception. The report's bar: "Plenty of China biotechs can generate interesting phase II data. Far fewer can launch two different biologic modalities, widen labels, and simultaneously sign global licensing deals." There is also a real commercial-access moat being built: telitacicept in >1,200 hospitals and disitamab vedotin in >1,050, plus NRDL inclusion/renewals (gMG entered NRDL December 2025; both disitamab vedotin labels renewed end-2025). Reimbursed, broadly-stocked brands are sticky.

    The weak part is unambiguous and the report does not soften it: "The weakest part of the moat is competition at the disease level." Telitacicept "gives it differentiation, but not monopoly," facing belimumab, FcRn approaches, BAFF-pathway competitors, Novartis' ianalumab in Sjögren's disease, and argenx's VYVGART franchise in myasthenia gravis. Disitamab vedotin "competes in a far more brutal field" including Daiichi Sankyo's Enhertu HER2 franchise, Pfizer/Seagen's ADC ecosystem, and Padcev-plus-pembrolizumab in urothelial cancer.

    Net direction: the company-level moat likely widens slightly as the platform spins out more licensable assets and as hospital/reimbursement depth compounds, but each individual indication remains a knife-fight where a faster global rival can reset the standard of care — the report warns "a drug that looks differentiated in 2024 can become merely one option in 2028." A medium moat, trending modestly wider at the franchise level and structurally narrow per disease.

    This is a summary of the report's views and external context; it does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk; invest with caution.

    评分依据The moat is medium and uneven: strong at the company level through ownership of self-developed molecules (Fang Jianmin is credited as inventor of both core drugs) and integrated discovery-to-commercialization capability, but weaker at the individual-indication level, where telitacicept and RC48 face serious global competitors (belimumab, argenx's VYVGART, Daiichi Sankyo's HER2 franchise, Padcev) that cap pricing power.

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  • 如果核心业务被颠覆,它有没有自我重塑的基因?它如何对待错误与坏消息?

    5/10

    RemeGen has shown adaptive, not reactive, behavior — it restructured its own business model toward licensing when domestic cash burn was punishing, which is the strongest evidence of self-renewal genes; but its handling of "bad news" so far is mostly survival and pivoting, not yet a tested response to a core-product disruption. The relevant disruption risk here is competitive replacement (a global rival resetting the standard of care), and the company has not yet faced that head-on, so the answer rests on inference from how it navigated the harder middle years.

    The clearest renewal signal is the 2023–2024 pivot. During "the hard middle," revenue grew but "not fast enough to absorb the company's appetite for R&D and commercial investment" — losses stayed deep (≈RMB1.51 billion pre-tax in 2023, RMB1.47 billion in 2024) while R&D ran RMB1.31–1.54 billion and selling expense climbed. Rather than dilute endlessly or stall the pipeline, management "changed the economics of its own pipeline": it out-licensed ex-China rights (Vor Bio, AbbVie) and a domestic ophthalmology asset (Santen), which "brought in cash" and "cut the amount of capital RemeGen itself would need to commit to every geography and indication." That is a company rewriting its model under pressure — the report calls licensing something that "has become part of the business model," and credits management with turning "unbooked pipeline optionality into balance-sheet-supporting assets."

    On how it treats setbacks and dilution, the report reads the May 2025 H-share placement (19 million shares at HKD42.44, about HKD796 million net) not as panic but as "opportunistic bridge capital raised just before the company could demonstrate a step-change in approvals." It "diluted shareholders, but it also reduced financing risk at a fragile point in the industry cycle." That is a management that takes a bad-news action (dilution) deliberately to protect optionality, then earns the market's later forgiveness via execution — "the stock's later rerating suggests the market eventually treated that capital raise as part of a transition rather than a sign of distress."

    The honest gaps: (1) the core-disruption stress test hasn't happened — disitamab vedotin and telitacicept have so far been winning labels, not defending against a superior entrant, so we don't yet know how the company reacts when a rival like Daiichi Sankyo's Enhertu or argenx's VYVGART takes meaningful share; and (2) disclosure quality is a mild concern — the report flags that product-level revenue isn't broken out and that headline profit is heavily flattered by fair-value marks, which is the opposite of a company over-communicating its own warts. There is no scandal (Ernst & Young remains auditor, no material breach disclosed in 2025), but the founder-controlled concert-party structure means bad news is filtered through insiders. Verdict: genuine evidence of strategic self-renewal under financial stress; an unproven record on confronting an actual core-product disruption.

    This is a summary of the report's views and figures; it does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk; invest with caution.

    评分依据Real strategic adaptability is shown by the pivot to a licensing-and-partnering model under cash stress, turning pipeline optionality into upfront cash and offloaded development risk rather than diluting endlessly; the limit is that survival through an actual disruption of its core modalities has not been stress-tested.

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  • 管理层(尤其创始人)是否长期视野、利益与公司深度绑定?愿意为五到十年后牺牲当下利润吗?

    5/10

    Management is founder-led, long-horizon, and deeply invested through a concert-party control structure — they have demonstrably sacrificed near-term profit for the pipeline for years — but that same alignment is double-edged: it is alignment with the founding ecosystem, not cleanly with minority A-share holders. The report's company-profile score for management credibility is "medium," and its summary verdict is precise: "good on science, decent on capital markets, and merely average on minority-shareholder alignment."

    On long-term vision and willingness to sacrifice current profit, the evidence is strong and multi-year. RemeGen ran deep losses by choice — pre-tax losses of roughly RMB999 million (2022), RMB1.51 billion (2023), and RMB1.47 billion (2024) — while pouring RMB1.31–1.54 billion a year into R&D to push telitacicept and disitamab vedotin across new indications. This is the opposite of harvesting early profit. The founding pairing is built for the long arc: scientific founder Dr. Fang Jianmin (Dalhousie-trained, Harvard/Boston Children's postdoc), credited by the company as inventor of both core drugs, alongside industrial organizer and chairman Wang Weidong. The report argues this pairing is exactly why RemeGen "did not become just another licensing shell" but built discovery, development, manufacturing, and commercialization "under one roof in Yantai." Even after reaching reported profitability in 2025, R&D stayed at RMB1.22 billion — they are still spending for indications five-plus years out, not maximizing today's bottom line.

    On skin in the game, control is concentrated in the founders. The annual report discloses "an unusually broad concert-party controlling structure: Wang Weidong, Fang Jianmin, other executives and directors, and affiliated entities act in concert on major decisions." That is deep ownership and deep alignment with the enterprise's long-term value — founders this entangled rarely optimize for a single quarter. China-listed innovative-drug founders typically retain large equity stakes that tie their wealth to the long-run share value.

    The honest counterweight — and why this isn't an unqualified "yes" — is governance. The same concentration that guarantees long-termism also lowers minority protection. The report flags "connected relationships involving RC Pharma and MabPlex," and a family dimension that "became more visible over time": the 2025 annual report references share awards to Fang Michelle Yi, "the daughter of Fang Jianmin," who a June 2026 filing shows elected as an executive director. The report is balanced — "None of this amounts to scandal," Ernst & Young remains auditor, and no material breach was disclosed in 2025 — but it insists "the structure still deserves a governance discount: control is concentrated, related-party linkages exist, and ordinary shareholders are buying into a founder-led ecosystem rather than a simple one-share-one-influence corporate setup." So: yes to long-term vision and yes to deep founder alignment with the company; a real asterisk on whether that alignment fully extends to outside shareholders.

    This is a summary of the report's views and figures; it does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk; invest with caution.

    评分依据Founder-led and demonstrably long-horizon, with the scientific founder-inventor (Fang Jianmin) and industrial chairman (Wang Weidong) deeply bound through a concert-party structure and years of deliberate losses ploughed into R&D; the offsetting governance discount is real, with concentrated control, related-party links (RC Pharma, MabPlex) and visible family presence meaning alignment is with the founding ecosystem more than cleanly with minority holders.

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  • 如果它明天消失,客户会有多想念它?它的增长方式是否可持续、不依赖损害社会与监管?

    5/10

    If RemeGen vanished tomorrow, a meaningful set of patients and oncologists would miss specific products — but doctors are loyal to approved, reimbursed, effective drugs, not to the company, so indispensability is at the molecule level, not the brand level; and the growth is socially constructive and regulation-aligned (it widens access to treatable disease), which is a genuine strength. The report draws the line sharply on the first half: "Hospitals and physicians choose RemeGen's telitacicept because it is approved, reimbursed, and increasingly broad in label; they do not buy it because they have sworn allegiance to a platform."

    On how much it would be missed, the answer is "real but substitutable." Telitacicept is a differentiated dual-target (BLyS/APRIL) biologic across five China-approved B-cell-driven diseases (SLE, RA, gMG, Sjögren's, IgA nephropathy as of 2026-06-08), and in some of these — particularly IgA nephropathy, where treatment options are limited — its loss would be felt. Disitamab vedotin matters where "HER2 expression, line of therapy, local label support, and combination data justify it," with first-line urothelial data (ORR 76.1%, PFS 13.1 vs 6.5 months for chemotherapy) strong enough to support "a credible standard-of-care debate." But the report is candid that competitors exist for every indication — belimumab and FcRn agents in autoimmune, Daiichi Sankyo's Enhertu and Padcev-plus-pembrolizumab in oncology — so other drugs would absorb most demand. The brand is valued; it is not yet irreplaceable.

    On the dual sustainability test — does growth depend on harming society or fighting regulators — RemeGen scores well, and this is an underrated positive. Its growth comes from treating serious, under-served diseases with reimbursed innovative biologics; it is not extractive, addictive, or socially corrosive. Far from fighting regulators, the company's growth is enabled by them: the report notes telitacicept's SLE label was renewed in the NRDL in 2023 and 2025, gMG entered the NRDL in December 2025, and both disitamab vedotin labels were renewed at end-2025 — "Each renewal protects access. Each incremental label increases commercial density." China's National Reimbursement Drug List negotiation explicitly trades price cuts for volume and patient access, which aligns the company's commercial interest with broader patient access rather than against it. The report treats regulation as "a core economic variable, not a compliance footnote," and the relationship is cooperative, not adversarial.

    The honest caveats: (1) growth is policy-dependent — it "becomes weaker" if reimbursement support for innovative drugs cools, so social/regulatory sustainability is also a dependency, not just a clean tailwind; and (2) ex-China growth "depends on partners, foreign trial execution, and overseas regulators," where the company has less control. Net: missed at the molecule level (moderately), and growing in a way that is socially beneficial and regulation-aligned rather than regulation-defiant.

    This is a summary of the report's views and external context; it does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk; invest with caution.

    评分依据The products are genuinely needed and reimbursed (NRDL-listed, in 1,200-plus and 1,050-plus hospitals respectively), and the growth is socially constructive and policy-aligned rather than extractive; but indispensability sits at the molecule level, not a brand lock-in, so competitors can erode the position over time.

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  • 这门生意的单位经济(毛利、增量回报)如何?规模变大后变好还是变差?赚来的钱花在哪?

    4/10

    The gross-margin unit economics are excellent and improving — biologics carry high product margins, and gross profit more than doubled in 2025 — but the economics that matter for owners (incremental cash returns) are still poor, because commercial and R&D spend consumes nearly all of the gross profit and reported profit is flattered by non-cash fair-value gains. Scale is making the business bigger, not yet clearly better at the cash level. This split is the central tension of the whole report.

    On gross margin and the top of the unit-economics stack, the trajectory is strong. Gross profit reached RMB2.816 billion in 2025, up from RMB1.367 billion in 2024 — more than doubling — on product-sales revenue of RMB2.307 billion (+35.8%). That implies a high product gross margin, typical of innovative biologics where marginal manufacturing cost is low relative to price. Each incremental indication leverages a commercial organization that already exists, so on paper the incremental contribution per new label should be attractive — the report calls label expansion the source of "operating leverage."

    But the incremental return on capital is where it breaks down today. The cost stack still eats the margin: 2025 selling expense was RMB1.11 billion (up from RMB948.8 million), R&D was RMB1.22 billion (down from RMB1.54 billion), and administrative expense RMB362.4 million — together roughly RMB2.69 billion against RMB2.816 billion of gross profit. The report's blunt conclusion: the company "has not yet reached the point where recurring product gross profit comfortably outruns the combined cost of commercial effort and pipeline maintenance." The hardest-to-cut costs — field force to drive adoption, science to feed the next indications — "are still the ones most intrinsic to an innovative-drug franchise."

    Cash conversion is the decisive failing metric. 2025 operating cash flow was only RMB52.3 million against RMB709.7 million of attributable profit — about 0.07x — and after roughly RMB200 million of capex, free cash flow stayed negative. Much of the reported profit was non-cash: RMB640.7 million of fair-value gains on financial assets (the Vor Bio warrants) ran through the 2025 bridge, and Q1 2026 reported attributable profit of RMB328.0 million masked a RMB35.0 million loss after stripping about RMB363.0 million of non-recurring gains. So incremental "earnings" are currently more accounting than cash.

    On where the money goes: the bulk goes to the field force (selling) and the pipeline (R&D), which is the right place for a commercializing innovator to spend, and R&D intensity is structurally easing (the report's dashboard wants R&D/revenue "declining structurally from 2024 levels," with an alert if it "rises back above 40%"). The balance sheet shows the rest: RMB1.155 billion cash + RMB1.216 billion fair-value financial assets, against RMB2.159 billion of interest-bearing borrowings at 2025 year-end — comfortable only if you count trading assets as quasi-cash.

    Verdict on "does it get better with scale?": gross-margin economics clearly improve with volume; owner economics will only improve if operating cash flow and adjusted profit catch up — which the filings show has not happened yet. Good unit economics at the product line, unproven unit economics at the enterprise.

    This is a summary of the report's views and figures; it does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk; invest with caution.

    评分依据Split unit economics: excellent product gross margins typical of biologics (gross profit more than doubled to RMB2.816bn in 2025), but poor owner economics, with operating cash flow only RMB52.3m against RMB709.7m of attributable profit (about 0.07x), reported profit flattered by RMB640.7m of fair-value gains, a Q1 2026 adjusted loss, and RMB2.159bn of borrowings; gross-margin economics improve with scale, enterprise cash economics have not yet.

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  • 要让它十年涨五倍,需要哪些条件同时成立?这些条件现实吗?今天股价隐含了什么预期?

    2/10

    A 5x in ten years from RMB117.55 — to roughly RMB588 per share, about RMB330 billion market value — is not realistic on the A-share line from today's price, and the conditions required are stacked against the math: the report's own optimistic per-share value is only RMB90–110 (below today's price), and every expected-return scenario is negative. This is the rare case where the honest answer is that the stock would first have to fall before a 5x even becomes a coherent conversation.

    Start with what today's price already implies. At RMB117.55, the A-share values RemeGen at about RMB66.4 billion (564.48 million shares) — already 20.5x trailing sales versus 10.4x on the H-line, and roughly 91x trailing earnings on 2025 EPS of RMB1.29. A 5x would demand about RMB330 billion. For scale: that would put RemeGen well above Sichuan Kelun-Biotech's roughly HKD98.5 billion and Akeso's roughly HKD80 billion, and approaching argenx's more than US$56 billion — i.e. it would require RemeGen to become a top-tier global biopharma in a decade and to keep an A-share premium that the report treats as a risk to be unwound, not a feature to extrapolate.

    The conditions that would all have to hold simultaneously, per the report's optimistic scenario, are demanding: combined peak China sales of about RMB11.0 billion (vs RMB2.31 billion product sales today), owner earnings reaching about RMB1.5 billion by 2030, "strong telitacicept nephrology ramp and RC48 broader line movement," "strong milestone realization and meaningful royalty streams from multiple assets," and "successful overseas execution and higher-margin mix." Crucially, even if all of that lands, the report's optimistic equity value is only RMB51–62 billion, or RMB90–110 per share — which is below the current RMB117.55. The report spells out the consequence in its return math: expected annualized return is "conservative about -27% CAGR, base about -16% CAGR, optimistic about -5% CAGR from the current A-share price." Every case is negative.

    So the question "what does today's price imply?" has an uncomfortable answer: the A-share is not pricing a 5x — it is already pricing a future cleaner than the filings justify. The report says the market, "especially in Shanghai, is increasingly paying for a future earnings mix that has not yet arrived in recurring form," and that the A-line "looks like a good company that the local market has already pre-paid for." The margin of safety verdict is "none," and the most fragile assumption is "clean earnings normalization, not peak sales."

    For a 5x to be realistic, the realistic precondition is a much lower entry: the report's ideal buy zone is RMB36–40. From RMB40, a path to RMB200+ over a decade (a 5x off that base) would be a stretch but at least mathematically defensible if optimistic operations and a cleaned-up earnings base and sustained A/H scarcity all held. From RMB117.55, a 10-year 5x requires the optimistic operational case and a re-expansion of an already-extreme valuation — a bet the report's evidence does not support. Honest verdict: not realistic from the current A-share price.

    This is a summary of the report's views and figures; it does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk; invest with caution.

    评分依据A 10-year 5x from RMB117.55 (to roughly RMB588 per share, about RMB330bn) is not realistic, because the report's own optimistic per-share value is only RMB90-110, below today's price, and every expected-return scenario is negative (conservative -27%, base -16%, optimistic -5% CAGR); the stock would first have to fall toward the RMB36-40 ideal-buy zone before a 5x became a coherent conversation.

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  • 市场为什么还没意识到这一切?是看不懂、看不起,还是看不远?什么会成为「叙事拐点」?

    2/10

    The honest inversion of the usual Baillie question: on the A-share line the market has not under-appreciated RemeGen — it has over-appreciated it. So "what is the market missing?" points the other way: the market (especially onshore) is too sanguine about earnings quality and about the durability of a roughly 96.5% A/H premium. The mispricing here is optimism, not neglect. The report is explicit: "In Shanghai, investors are already paying for a much cleaner future than the current owner-earnings profile warrants."

    It helps to split the two lines, because they disagree about the same company. The report frames it directly: "the H shares price a growth company with risk; the A shares price a much cleaner future than the filings justify." On the latest coordinated closes, the A-share values RemeGen at about RMB66.4 billion versus about RMB33.8 billion implied by the H-share — a roughly 96.5% premium for identical economics. The report attributes that gap to "capital-market habitat" — "domestic liquidity, local risk appetite, and A-share scarcity are doing as much work as business quality" — a pattern common across dual-listed Chinese companies where mainland A-shares trade at structural premiums to their Hong Kong H-shares. So this is not a "看不懂/看不见" hidden gem; it is a well-followed name the onshore market is paying up for.

    Mapped onto the three classic lenses, but in the overvaluation direction:

    • 看不远 / mis-weighting the future (the real issue): The market is extrapolating 2025's reported profit (RMB709.7 million, first profit ever) as if it were a mature, recurring earnings base. It is not — the report shows RMB640.7 million of fair-value gains in the 2025 bridge against just RMB52.3 million of operating cash flow, and Q1 2026 adjusted profit still a RMB35.0 million loss. The report's sharpest line: the market "is capitalizing milestone-like earnings as if they were repeatable product earnings." That is the central thing being misjudged — "the timing of earnings quality, not the scientific value of telitacicept or RC48."
    • 看不见 the structural risk: Many A-share buyers underweight A/H convergence risk. "The business does not need to deteriorate for this risk to materialize. It only requires domestic liquidity or sentiment to cool" — a premium this wide means "part of the rerating can occur through line convergence alone."
    • 看不起 (the opposite of the usual story): The H-share market arguably does discount the company more than the A-share — pricing in dilution, execution risk, and weak cash conversion — which is the more defensible stance the report sides with.

    On the narrative inflection, the bullish onshore turning point already happened: the re-rating "from burning cash to commercial and licensable" is largely priced in. The next inflection the report watches for is the opposite risk — a downward re-rate "toward the H-share line's logic" if "2026 continues to show a large gap between recurring operations and headline earnings." Its three-year pre-mortem sketches a move "from RMB117.55 toward the RMB55–70 range" simply from "recurring economics failing to catch up to price."

    So the honest answer to "why hasn't the market realized it": for the A-share, the market has realized the company is good — and then some. What it may not yet have fully priced is that statutory profit ≠ recurring profit, and an extreme A/H premium is fragile. The asymmetry the report flags is downside, not upside, at today's onshore price — which is exactly why the rating is Avoid and the ideal buy zone (RMB36–40) sits far below the market.

    This is a summary of the report's views and external context; it does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk; invest with caution.

    评分依据The usual question inverts here: the A-share market has over-appreciated, not neglected, RemeGen, paying a roughly 96.5% premium to the H-share and capitalizing fair-value-inflated 2025 profit as if it were recurring; the asymmetry the report flags is downside (a pre-mortem move toward RMB55-70), so there is no positive perception gap to exploit at today's onshore price, which is exactly why the rating is Avoid.

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以上分析基于本篇研报内容整理,不构成投资建议,市场有风险。