纵横研报
Industry

计算药物发现

03Reports
SLP.US logo
·计算药物发现 ·内部研究

Simulations Plus: A Credible Drug-Modeling Specialist, Now Priced as a Near-Cash Deal Stock

Simulations Plus builds scientifically trusted drug-development modeling software (GastroPlus, MonolixSuite, ADMET Predictor, DILIsym), but its revenue mix has drifted toward lower-margin services since the 2024 Pro-ficiency acquisition, which pulled FY2025 gross margin to 58% and triggered a $77.2m impairment. On 2026-06-26 the equity trades as a near-cash event security: Altaris' agreed $18.50-per-share takeout caps upside just above the $18.14 close, while a broken deal would reopen real downside. Rating Avoid: a thin-spread cash-deal security whose unresolved software-mix question still sits underneath the transaction.

Avoid
CERT.US logo
·计算药物发现 ·内部研究

Certara 深度研究:嵌入药监流程的生物模拟软件与服务平台

Certara 是生物模拟软件与监管科学服务商,软件被 20 家全球药监机构采用,帮助药企用建模仿真缩短研发与审批路径。2025 年软件收入同比增长接近 18%,但体量更大的服务端 2026 年一季度收入下滑 4%、新签订单下降 14%,全年核心增长指引仅 0%–4%。研报评级观察:软件护城河还在,但服务拖累与重组兑现仍需季度验证。

观察