纵横研报
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#capital allocation

02Reports
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·黄金矿业 ·内部研究

SSR Mining: Cash-Rich After the Çöpler Exit, With the Real Test Still Ahead

SSR Mining is an Americas-focused gold-and-silver producer running four mines (Marigold, Cripple Creek & Victor, Seabee, Puna), guiding 450,000–535,000 gold-equivalent ounces for 2026 after completing its exit from Türkiye. The June 24, 2026 Çöpler sale converted the portfolio's biggest source of risk into about 1.49 billion USD of cash, implying at least roughly 1.82 billion USD pro forma, yet at 30.31 USD the stock already prices in much of the de-risking while the larger capital-allocation test is still ahead. Rating Hold: the balance sheet is far better after Çöpler, but the current price discounts much of that cleanup before redeployment is fully proven.

Hold
·软件与互联网 ·In-house Research

Constellation Software: A Compounding Machine at a Full Price

Constellation Software is a decentralized capital-allocation machine that buys and indefinitely holds more than 1,100 autonomous vertical-market software businesses, compounding sticky recurring maintenance cash flow into further niche acquisitions across nine operating groups. The investment debate is now about price and continuity, not quality: Q1 2026 revenue rose 20% to US$3.181 billion with 6% organic growth and free cash flow available to shareholders of US$733 million, yet at CA$2,882.02 the stock trades near 58.7 times trailing earnings and 22.9 times that cash flow while founder Mark Leonard's 2025 departure and AI fears cloud the outlook. Rating Hold: a rare software compounding machine, but today's price still assumes enough continuity that the margin of safety is thin.

Hold