纵横研报
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#周期反转

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·医疗器械 ·内部研究

Carl Zeiss Meditec: A High-Grade Ophthalmology Franchise Forced to Relearn Its Operating Model in China

Carl Zeiss Meditec is a premium German ophthalmology and microsurgery franchise where ophthalmology drives about 77% of sales and recurring revenue has climbed from 9% two decades ago to roughly 50%. A simultaneous China VBP shock and weak Americas equipment demand crushed H1 FY2025/26 adjusted EBITA margin to 6.1% from 10.7%, and the shares have fallen more than 80% from their 2021 peak to 27.96 euros. Rating Watch: a high-quality medtech franchise in a real trough, but the China relisting and margin-restoration bridge is still too unproven for a clean entry, with the ideal buy zone at 24 to 26 euros.

AFX.XETRA Carl Zeiss Meditec AG #医疗器械#眼科#显微外科#Carl Zeiss#周期反转#中国VBP#估值#ALC.US#JNJ.US#BLCO.US#DHR.US
Watch
·运动器材 ·内部研究

Shimano: A Fortress Cycling Franchise in a Real Trough, But the Price Already Pays for the Repair

Shimano is a century-old Japanese precision manufacturer whose bicycle drivetrain and braking franchise still drives roughly three-quarters of group sales, with fishing tackle the resilient second engine. Group operating income has fallen from a 169.2 billion yen pandemic peak in 2022 to a guided 47.0 billion yen in 2026 (margin near 10% against a historical 20% to 25%), and at 17,340 yen (about 35x guided earnings) the price already discounts much of the eventual repair, leaving no margin of safety. Rating Hold: a fortress-quality franchise in a real but uncertain trough, where the moat is intact yet the entry price is not yet compelling, with the ideal buy zone at 12,000 to 14,000 yen.

7309.TSE Shimano Inc. #自行车零部件#Shimano#周期反转#钓具#护城河#估值
Hold