纵横研报
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#Backlog Conversion

02Reports
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·航空航天与国防 ·内部研究

RBC Bearings: The Moat Is Real, but the Price Already Assumes the Aerospace-Defense Story Is Finished

RBC Bearings is a niche U.S. manufacturer of qualification-protected precision bearings, engineered components, and fluid-control systems for aerospace, defense, and industrial platforms, shaped over three decades by founder-CEO Michael Hartnett's 29-deal acquisition program. Fiscal 2026 revenue reached $1.87 billion as Aerospace & Defense sales grew 32.9% against 3.8% Industrial growth, backlog surged to $2.3 billion, and the stock re-rated toward premium defense-compounder multiples (about 48x adjusted EPS) even as owner-earnings yield fell near 1.8%, below the 4.27% 10-year Treasury yield. Rating Watch: an excellent, moat-protected compounder, but today's price already discounts years of successful mix conversion, leaving the ideal buy zone at $290-340.

RBC.US RBC Bearings Incorporated #Aerospace and Defense Compounding#Qualification Moat#Backlog Conversion#VACCO Acquisition#Owner Earnings#Aftermarket Exposure
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·国防科技 ·内部研究

Kongsberg Gruppen: A Genuine Defense Franchise Priced for a Decade of Perfect Execution

Kongsberg Gruppen is Norway's post-spin defense and ocean-space technology group, having demerged Kongsberg Maritime in April 2026 to focus on air-defense and missile systems alongside a smaller Discovery segment. The core tension is between a genuinely strong business, a record NOK 152.0 billion backlog with disciplined framework-agreement accounting, and a stock priced at roughly 9.1x trailing sales and about 70x trailing earnings that already assumes years of near-flawless execution toward management's bold 2029/2033 revenue targets. Rating Watch: a real defense franchise, but today's NOK 328.1 price leaves little margin of safety, with expected annualized returns ranging from about -17% to +6% across scenarios.

KOG.OL Kongsberg Gruppen ASA #Defense Technology#European Rearmament#Air Defense and Missiles#Post-Spin Valuation#Backlog Conversion#Norway
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