国防科技

Kongsberg Gruppen: A Genuine Defense Franchise Priced for a Decade of Perfect Execution

Kongsberg Gruppen is Norway's post-spin defense and ocean-space technology group, having demerged Kongsberg Maritime in April 2026 to focus on air-defense and missile systems alongside a smaller Discovery segment. The core tension is between a genuinely strong business, a record NOK 152.0 billion backlog with disciplined framework-agreement accounting, and a stock priced at roughly 9.1x trailing sales and about 70x trailing earnings that already assumes years of near-flawless execution toward management's bold 2029/2033 revenue targets. Rating Watch: a real defense franchise, but today's NOK 328.1 price leaves little margin of safety, with expected annualized returns ranging from about -17% to +6% across scenarios.

AeroVironment(AVAV) 横纵研报

美军巡飞弹(Switchblade)与小型无人机(Puma/Raven)主力供应商，踩在「无人机主导」这一代国防最强顺风上(FY2027 DAWG 预算请求 546 亿美元)；41 亿美元全股票并购 BlueHalo 后整合磕绊集中兑现——Q3 营收 miss、毛利率从 38% 压到 24%、1.51 亿美元太空商誉减值、砍全年指引、GAAP 转亏、证券集体诉讼。